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The best time to plant a tree is twenty years ago. The second best time is today. I don't know why anyone would sit around moping about "If only this were thir

The best time to plant a tree is twenty years ago. The second best time is today. I don't know why anyone would sit around moping about "If only this were thirty years ago!" If it seems like your idea would be "easy" or something -- if only it were thirty years ago -- then most likely it's because we are where we are and you know what you know now that you wouldn't have known then. It's like all the people who say things like "Youth is wasted on the young" and "I wish I had known what I know now back when I was seventeen." Yeah, you know it at all because you aren't seventeen.

santoshalper 3y ago
I do, because figuring out what is going to be big 30 years from now is hard (arguably impossible to do deterministically), but knowing what is big now is easy, and wishing you could go back and capitalize on that is natural.
- lostemptations5 3y ago
  But not useful-- so that's why planting the "tree" now is more practical
- DoreenMichele 3y ago
  A lot of people also spend scads of time contemplating how they would spend the money if they won the lottery and it's generally a waste of time. They probably aren't going to win the lottery and it usually isn't used as a stepping stone to making real life decisions about, say, what kind of career they want to pursue or how they wish to spend their retirement. I used to do that sort of thing and then began going "If I value x, why sit around telling myself I can't possibly have that or some piece of that without winning the lottery? Why not do what I can to actually work towards that to some degree, in some fashion?" So you may get it. That's fine. I don't and that's not commentary on anyone but me and how my mind works.
AnimalMuppet 3y ago
If this were thirty years ago instead of today, the opportunity to build X[1] would be wide open, but you'd have to build it with the tools that were available 30 years ago. That might not be nearly as easy as building it with today's tools. [1] "X" meaning "variable to be substituted for" rather than "company that made a bizarre naming choice for no apparent reason".
- bombcar 3y ago
  Also you have the clear hindsight - if I go back 30 years I'm going to be developing an iPod or something, not any of the flops from 1994 (even though people might note that there are flops in 1994 that have something quite similar be a big hit in 2004 ...). It's like the people who talk about how obvious it was to invest in Apple or Microsoft or BRK or whatever "if they'd been there at that time" and yet by definition the companies that will be referred to like that in 20 years time almost certainly exist today, but - how do you find them?

santoshalper 3y ago

I do, because figuring out what is going to be big 30 years from now is hard (arguably impossible to do deterministically), but knowing what is big now is easy, and wishing you could go back and capitalize on that is natural.

lostemptations5 3y ago
But not useful-- so that's why planting the "tree" now is more practical
DoreenMichele 3y ago
A lot of people also spend scads of time contemplating how they would spend the money if they won the lottery and it's generally a waste of time. They probably aren't going to win the lottery and it usually isn't used as a stepping stone to making real life decisions about, say, what kind of career they want to pursue or how they wish to spend their retirement. I used to do that sort of thing and then began going "If I value x, why sit around telling myself I can't possibly have that or some piece of that without winning the lottery? Why not do what I can to actually work towards that to some degree, in some fashion?" So you may get it. That's fine. I don't and that's not commentary on anyone but me and how my mind works.

AnimalMuppet 3y ago

If this were thirty years ago instead of today, the opportunity to build X[1] would be wide open, but you'd have to build it with the tools that were available 30 years ago. That might not be nearly as easy as building it with today's tools. [1] "X" meaning "variable to be substituted for" rather than "company that made a bizarre naming choice for no apparent reason".

bombcar 3y ago
Also you have the clear hindsight - if I go back 30 years I'm going to be developing an iPod or something, not any of the flops from 1994 (even though people might note that there are flops in 1994 that have something quite similar be a big hit in 2004 ...). It's like the people who talk about how obvious it was to invest in Apple or Microsoft or BRK or whatever "if they'd been there at that time" and yet by definition the companies that will be referred to like that in 20 years time almost certainly exist today, but - how do you find them?