Let's build a realistic model of a game show host. What is the causal process at work? The game show host isn't going to reveal YOUR chosen door - that would r

Let's build a realistic model of a game show host. What is the causal process at work? The game show host isn't going to reveal YOUR chosen door - that would ruin the whole game. Likewise, the host isn't going to reveal the CAR and end the game immediately without a winner - it's bad television. So the host opens a third class of "irrelevant goat door" in order to offer you the suspenseful proposition that is sure to get millions on the edge of their seat - switch or stick? In the case of 3 doors there is only 1 irrelevant goat door. In the case of 100 doors, there are 98 irrelevant goat doors, driving the point home further. We have to assume the host knows which are irrelevant. All irrelevant goats are eliminated. Which means the probability of the car behind your door is 1/n and the probability of car behind the remaining door is always (n-1)/n. Always. Given this assumed behavior of the host. Knowing the above gives you a clear empirical advantage for modeling and inference. Why would you reject knowledge that may be directly relevant to the question at hand?