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That's kind of a dismissive way to say "maybe it's optimized for buyer's remorse or returns?" Maybe it is, but I'm not totally convinced. For one it doesn't ex
by ants_everywhere 3y ago
That's kind of a dismissive way to say "maybe it's optimized for buyer's remorse or returns?"
Maybe it is, but I'm not totally convinced. For one it doesn't explain why Amazon would recommend literally the same SKU so often. Also, does Amazon really want to incentivize returning large items like fridges?
And the poker thing from the original post
> People who are compensated strictly based on their ability to predict the future, like poker players... tend to be much better at high school math than Twitter users.
Professional gamblers in games like poker usually don't try to predict the future. They just have a small set of hands with known probability and mainly have to focus on things like sizing their bets. (Poker players also have to read human signals, but I'm not sure they explicitly assign probabilities to these).
Another explanation is just that the cost of recommending you a fridge you already own is lower than the cost of tuning the algorithm better or having multiple algorithms depending on tuples of factors (price, customer, customer behavior). If that's true, then we should expect Amazon to do less of this in the future. If Patio11's explanation is correct, then we should expect Amazon to continue to recommend these items even as the algorithms are updated to the more recent generation of AI.
- doctorpangloss 3y agoThe reason is much simpler, Amazon is correctly optimizing for the person who buys like 10 scooters. This doesn’t sound rational but it’s the same principles as video game IAP. God rolls a 100 sided dice and if it’s a 1 or a 2, you’re born someone who just buys an absolutely ridiculous amount of stuff. These people are rare but the system is not wrong.
- bflesch 3y agoSounds like the argument that social media is basically abusing mental illnesses and people with impulsive spending behaviors. Many of the "whales" in online gaming, gambling, shopping, etc. are people who YOLO their future away due to underlying illnesses, and the MINT people abuse it while telling themselves it's creating value for the customer.
- Leftium 3y agopatio11 has interesting insights, but does give off an "angry nerd" vibe Whether poker players are predicting the future or not, I would argue Amazon is doing the same thing: - Each potential customer can be considered a hand with a certain probability. - Amazon is sizing their "bet" (ad budget) according to the probability that customer will convert. I also agree with this observation about poker, and can imagine Amazon using a similar strategy: https://hw.leftium.com/#/item/39462238 https://hw.leftium.com/#/item/39462238 Successful marketers were already teaching this decades ago: https://thegaryhalbertletter.com/newsletters/direct_marketing_to_a_starving_crowd.htm https://thegaryhalbertletter.com/newsletters/direct_marketin...