3 ms·
Maybe different explanations resonate with different people. Another explanation: After initial selection there is 1/3 chance car is behind your door, and 2/3
by HarHarVeryFunny 3y ago
Maybe different explanations resonate with different people.
Another explanation:
After initial selection there is 1/3 chance car is behind your door, and 2/3 chance it is behind one of the other two doors.
When one of the other doors is opened revealing a goat, we NOW know (new information to be taken advantage of!) the 2/3 chance represented by those two other doors lies with the unopened one.
So, your choice is stick with original choice which has 1/3 chance of being correct, or switching to the other door which you now know has a 2/3 chance of being correct! Obviously you switch.
The big lie to "with two doors left it's 50/50" is that opening doors makes no difference. You're original choice had 1/3 chance of being correct, and you can't go back in time and change that.
- lynguist 3y ago“People” seem to think whenever you have a number of options, each option is equally likely. I get into the car today - either I die in a crash or I don’t. Hmm, I didn’t die, I survived the 50:50. Their model doesn’t allow accounting for varying probabilities for different outcomes.