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> the fact they all contain goats is pretty suggestive that I have the car, or at least 50/50 That's exactly the point. If he doesn't know, then it's exactly
by tsimionescu 3y ago
> the fact they all contain goats is pretty suggestive that I have the car, or at least 50/50
That's exactly the point. If he doesn't know, then it's exactly 50/50 and there is no reason to switch. If he does know, then it's 1/NUM_DOORS versus NUM_DOORS-1/NUM_DOORS, so you'd be crazy not to switch.
The point is, if he picks at random, in the 100 door case, the vast majority of the time he will open the car door while opening those 98 doors. The case where you get to pick again would be exceedingly rare. Conversely, if he only opens goat doors, you will get your second pick 100% of the time.
- hgomersall 3y agoThis is why one can't ignore the car picked cases, so the simulator is correct.
- EGPRC 3y agoI believe the confusion with "ignoring the car picked cases" comes due to thinking that they are additional games to the original ones, instead of being part of those that constitute the 2/3 in which the player starts picking wrong. So you thought that eliminating them you were left with the original 1/3 vs 2/3, when you actually removed half of the 2/3.