3 ms·
> The simplest way to explain why switching is the correct strategy In my experience the most _intuitive_ explanation is to simply ramp it up to 100 doors, wit
by petesergeant 3y ago
> The simplest way to explain why switching is the correct strategy
In my experience the most _intuitive_ explanation is to simply ramp it up to 100 doors, with Monty opening 98 of them, to make it clear that switching offers you the benefit of all unopened doors.
- HarHarVeryFunny 3y agoMaybe different explanations resonate with different people. Another explanation: After initial selection there is 1/3 chance car is behind your door, and 2/3 chance it is behind one of the other two doors. When one of the other doors is opened revealing a goat, we NOW know (new information to be taken advantage of!) the 2/3 chance represented by those two other doors lies with the unopened one. So, your choice is stick with original choice which has 1/3 chance of being correct, or switching to the other door which you now know has a 2/3 chance of being correct! Obviously you switch. The big lie to "with two doors left it's 50/50" is that opening doors makes no difference. You're original choice had 1/3 chance of being correct, and you can't go back in time and change that.
- lynguist 3y ago“People” seem to think whenever you have a number of options, each option is equally likely. I get into the car today - either I die in a crash or I don’t. Hmm, I didn’t die, I survived the 50:50. Their model doesn’t allow accounting for varying probabilities for different outcomes.