3 ms·
Suppose Car is C. The only possible options are (equally likely) You choose A and get shown B You choose B and get shown A You choose C and get shown A You ch
by jncfhnb 3y ago
Suppose Car is C.
The only possible options are (equally likely)
You choose A and get shown B
You choose B and get shown A
You choose C and get shown A
You choose C and get shown B
4 options. You lose 50% of the time.
The 2 options where you would normally get the 2/3 odds are explicitly ignored when you are told Monty chosen randomly and randomly got a goat.
You choose A and get shown C or you choose B and get shown C are forbidden.
50/50 probability on the dot.
If Monty chooses with intention then the options where you choose goat and are shown goat double in probability so you get back to 2/3