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Apropos the topic of being confidently incorrect, it was indeed a real show: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let%27s_Make_a_Deal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let

Apropos the topic of being confidently incorrect, it was indeed a real show: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let%27s_Make_a_Deal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let%27s_Make_a_Deal Hosted by a real Monty Hall: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall It even had the gag prizes like goats (or, as in the photo from the wiki page, a llama)

svat 3y ago
The Monty Hall problem is a thought experiment (based on a real game show). As evidence, see this letter from Monty Hall himself ("no trading boxes after the selection"): Dear Steve: Thank you for sending me the problem from "The American Statistician." Although I am not a student of a statistics problems, I do know that these figures can always be used to one's advantage, if I wished to manipulate same. The big hole in your argument of problems is that once the first box is seen to be empty, the contestant cannot exchange his box. So the problems still remain the same, don't they. . . one out of three. Oh, and incidentally, after one is seen to be empty, his chances are no longer 50/50 but remain what they were in the first place, one out of three. It just seems to the contestant that one box having been eliminated, he stands a better chance. Not so. It was always two to one against him. And if you ever get on my show, the rules hold fast for you -- no trading boxes after the selection. Next time let's play on my home grounds. I graduated in chemistry and zoology. You want to know your chances of surviving with our polluted air and water? Sincerely, Monty https://web.archive.org/web/20100408200824/http://www.letsmakeadeal.com/problem.htm https://web.archive.org/web/20100408200824/http://www.letsma...
dfxm12 3y ago
I think importantly, the "Monty Hall Problem" as described is different from how any iteration of the Big Deal at the end of Let's Make a Deal is actually run. Hall himself recognized this and mentioned it in a NYT interview in the 90s. It's paywalled, but the excerpt is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem Hall understood the problem, giving the reporter a demonstration with car keys and explaining how actual game play on Let's Make a Deal differed from the rules of the puzzle. When I first heard about the puzzle, I struggled with the solution precisely because I kept making assumptions about the puzzle based on my knowledge of the show. It wasn't until I thoroughly read the question, setting aside those assumptions, that I realized it is materially different from the show and I was able to really understand the solution.
DerekL 3y ago
Yes, the actual show was mentioned in the article. Also, Let's Make a Deal has been revived and canceled many times, and has been on the air since 2009.
bazoom42 3y ago
The name of the problem is obviously taken from the real game show, but the real show did not work like in the thought experiment. So you cant just apply game show logic. The “monty hall problem” (in the form stated in the article) is really a trick question, since it hinges on some assumptions which is never stated. Even when stated correctly, the problem is a fun and counter-intuitive problem. But when leaving out critical information, you create a very differet problem of guessing what the unstated assumptions are.

svat 3y ago

The Monty Hall problem is a thought experiment (based on a real game show). As evidence, see this letter from Monty Hall himself ("no trading boxes after the selection"): Dear Steve: Thank you for sending me the problem from "The American Statistician." Although I am not a student of a statistics problems, I do know that these figures can always be used to one's advantage, if I wished to manipulate same. The big hole in your argument of problems is that once the first box is seen to be empty, the contestant cannot exchange his box. So the problems still remain the same, don't they. . . one out of three. Oh, and incidentally, after one is seen to be empty, his chances are no longer 50/50 but remain what they were in the first place, one out of three. It just seems to the contestant that one box having been eliminated, he stands a better chance. Not so. It was always two to one against him. And if you ever get on my show, the rules hold fast for you -- no trading boxes after the selection. Next time let's play on my home grounds. I graduated in chemistry and zoology. You want to know your chances of surviving with our polluted air and water? Sincerely, Monty https://web.archive.org/web/20100408200824/http://www.letsmakeadeal.com/problem.htm https://web.archive.org/web/20100408200824/http://www.letsma...

dfxm12 3y ago

I think importantly, the "Monty Hall Problem" as described is different from how any iteration of the Big Deal at the end of Let's Make a Deal is actually run. Hall himself recognized this and mentioned it in a NYT interview in the 90s. It's paywalled, but the excerpt is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem Hall understood the problem, giving the reporter a demonstration with car keys and explaining how actual game play on Let's Make a Deal differed from the rules of the puzzle. When I first heard about the puzzle, I struggled with the solution precisely because I kept making assumptions about the puzzle based on my knowledge of the show. It wasn't until I thoroughly read the question, setting aside those assumptions, that I realized it is materially different from the show and I was able to really understand the solution.

DerekL 3y ago

Yes, the actual show was mentioned in the article. Also, Let's Make a Deal has been revived and canceled many times, and has been on the air since 2009.

bazoom42 3y ago

The name of the problem is obviously taken from the real game show, but the real show did not work like in the thought experiment. So you cant just apply game show logic. The “monty hall problem” (in the form stated in the article) is really a trick question, since it hinges on some assumptions which is never stated. Even when stated correctly, the problem is a fun and counter-intuitive problem. But when leaving out critical information, you create a very differet problem of guessing what the unstated assumptions are.