3 ms·

There is a bubble in the valuations of LLMs similar to the valuation of NFTs. Anyone can create a modified version of Llama2.

ctrw 3y ago
Yes and each of those costs between half a million in pure compute to a few hundred million for fine tuning/training.
thethimble 3y ago
The last All in Podcast had an interesting take on this: Most of the R&D and Capex going into LLMs/GenAI is speculative. The investments haven’t translated into real revenue yet. The expectation is that there will be a large pot of revenue at the end of the road, but we haven’t seen the killer apps to substantiate this. This makes for a perfect bubble if the promise doesn’t pan out. Relatedly Nvidia’s revenue - as impressive as the recent growth has been - is fully exposed to this risk. Of course it’s possible (likely?) that there will be major wins from this tech, but the fact that there isn’t definitive proof (in the form of revenue) yet represents real risk.
- andai 3y ago
  Well, the major win will be when AI makes human labor uneconomical. Not sure what that's going to do to the stock prices though...
- pantulis 3y ago
  > The expectation is that there will be a large pot of revenue at the end of the road, but we haven’t seen the killer apps to substantiate this Imho, unlike crypto and NFT, AI is not a solution in search of a problem. While there is a lot of hand waving, it is not very adventurous to predict that there will be significant productivity gains by adding AI on top of current business processes. Thus the killer apps will be... the same apps we are using today with a touch of AI magic dust.
  - mnky9800n 3y ago
    Also, outside of making chatbots and waifus there's a lot of hard tech problems waiting for ai type solutions.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > All in Podcast Calacanis and Palihapitiya are the Jim Kramers of tech.
  - thethimble 3y ago
    This kind of response is level 0 or level 1 on PG’s hierarchy of disagreement https://paulgraham.com/disagree.html https://paulgraham.com/disagree.html
- chasd00 3y ago
  that's the root of my skepticism. I've yet to see huge transformational projects involving AI from the grapevine of my 750k+ employee consulting firm, all I hear about are experiments, webinars, and POCs. What I see in the news regarding the few projects live is not good, AirCanada and some others where the AI went wrong and now the company has to backtrack. There's no doubt the tech community is all excited because genai, indeed, helps write code but I've yet to hear a large company like Coca Cola announce large AI transformation projects the way they announced large cloud transformation projects a few years ago. I get more and more on the AI bandwagon as time goes on but I still have a pretty healthy skepticism on how deep and wide the tech will penetrate day to day business at enterprises and that's where the ROI is.
codexon 3y ago
The open source models are VERY far behind gpt4.

ctrw 3y ago

Yes and each of those costs between half a million in pure compute to a few hundred million for fine tuning/training.

thethimble 3y ago

The last All in Podcast had an interesting take on this: Most of the R&D and Capex going into LLMs/GenAI is speculative. The investments haven’t translated into real revenue yet. The expectation is that there will be a large pot of revenue at the end of the road, but we haven’t seen the killer apps to substantiate this. This makes for a perfect bubble if the promise doesn’t pan out. Relatedly Nvidia’s revenue - as impressive as the recent growth has been - is fully exposed to this risk. Of course it’s possible (likely?) that there will be major wins from this tech, but the fact that there isn’t definitive proof (in the form of revenue) yet represents real risk.

andai 3y ago
Well, the major win will be when AI makes human labor uneconomical. Not sure what that's going to do to the stock prices though...
pantulis 3y ago
> The expectation is that there will be a large pot of revenue at the end of the road, but we haven’t seen the killer apps to substantiate this Imho, unlike crypto and NFT, AI is not a solution in search of a problem. While there is a lot of hand waving, it is not very adventurous to predict that there will be significant productivity gains by adding AI on top of current business processes. Thus the killer apps will be... the same apps we are using today with a touch of AI magic dust.
- mnky9800n 3y ago
  Also, outside of making chatbots and waifus there's a lot of hard tech problems waiting for ai type solutions.
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> All in Podcast Calacanis and Palihapitiya are the Jim Kramers of tech.
- thethimble 3y ago
  This kind of response is level 0 or level 1 on PG’s hierarchy of disagreement https://paulgraham.com/disagree.html https://paulgraham.com/disagree.html
chasd00 3y ago
that's the root of my skepticism. I've yet to see huge transformational projects involving AI from the grapevine of my 750k+ employee consulting firm, all I hear about are experiments, webinars, and POCs. What I see in the news regarding the few projects live is not good, AirCanada and some others where the AI went wrong and now the company has to backtrack. There's no doubt the tech community is all excited because genai, indeed, helps write code but I've yet to hear a large company like Coca Cola announce large AI transformation projects the way they announced large cloud transformation projects a few years ago. I get more and more on the AI bandwagon as time goes on but I still have a pretty healthy skepticism on how deep and wide the tech will penetrate day to day business at enterprises and that's where the ROI is.

codexon 3y ago

The open source models are VERY far behind gpt4.