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Statistically Cascadia is long overdue a 9 on the Richter scale. Seeing what Microsoft's business back up plan for that is, would be interesting, especially si

Statistically Cascadia is long overdue a 9 on the Richter scale. Seeing what Microsoft's business back up plan for that is, would be interesting, especially since Seattle would be the largest affected city.

jpalawaga 3y ago
I lived in Vancouver bc and in general they’re prepared. The office building I worked from had many earthquake supply cabinets that had rations, water, thermal blankets, and we all knew where the community muster points were. They had people come in to talk about the risks and remind you about earthquake preparedness. In general it’s going to be a disaster, but people are prepared for it (as much as one can be anyhow)
rootusrootus 3y ago
> Statistically Cascadia is long overdue a 9 More precisely, it's 8, the average is 500 years, and the last one was in 1700.
- DrBazza 3y ago
  Cunningham's law eh? :)
  - rootusrootus 3y ago
    Ha! I had forgotten it had a name, but I guess that works. There is a fair bit of variability in the 500 year average, and 8 is still a seriously large earthquake, so preparations are definitely justified IMO.
- shkkmo 3y ago
  That's not precisely accurate. The cascadian subductions zone uas produced magnitude 9 quakes in the past. The results I've seen (from a decade and a half ago) pegged the probability of a magnitude > 9 in the next 50 years at 1/10 and a magnitude > 8 at 1/3. The 500 years average is if you look at the last 7 events. 7 is a horribly low sample size and if you extend the timescale, that average drops by half and indicates we are past the 250 year average.
kccqzy 3y ago
Statistically a lot of things are overdue. Like the big flood in California. https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Dettinger_Ingram_sciam13.pdf https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Dettinger_I...
ianburrell 3y ago
The chance for Cascadia magnitude 8 is 37% is next 50 years, and magnitude 9 is 15%. The 37% chance is for the southern section, and 15% is for the full fault.

jpalawaga 3y ago

I lived in Vancouver bc and in general they’re prepared. The office building I worked from had many earthquake supply cabinets that had rations, water, thermal blankets, and we all knew where the community muster points were. They had people come in to talk about the risks and remind you about earthquake preparedness. In general it’s going to be a disaster, but people are prepared for it (as much as one can be anyhow)

rootusrootus 3y ago

> Statistically Cascadia is long overdue a 9 More precisely, it's 8, the average is 500 years, and the last one was in 1700.

DrBazza 3y ago
Cunningham's law eh? :)
- rootusrootus 3y ago
  Ha! I had forgotten it had a name, but I guess that works. There is a fair bit of variability in the 500 year average, and 8 is still a seriously large earthquake, so preparations are definitely justified IMO.
shkkmo 3y ago
That's not precisely accurate. The cascadian subductions zone uas produced magnitude 9 quakes in the past. The results I've seen (from a decade and a half ago) pegged the probability of a magnitude > 9 in the next 50 years at 1/10 and a magnitude > 8 at 1/3. The 500 years average is if you look at the last 7 events. 7 is a horribly low sample size and if you extend the timescale, that average drops by half and indicates we are past the 250 year average.

kccqzy 3y ago

Statistically a lot of things are overdue. Like the big flood in California. https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Dettinger_Ingram_sciam13.pdf https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Dettinger_I...

ianburrell 3y ago

The chance for Cascadia magnitude 8 is 37% is next 50 years, and magnitude 9 is 15%. The 37% chance is for the southern section, and 15% is for the full fault.