I don't think you can say with confidence that the LLM approach will not lead to AGI, unless you understand in detail how human intelligence operates, and can s

I don't think you can say with confidence that the LLM approach will not lead to AGI, unless you understand in detail how human intelligence operates, and can show that no modification to current LLM architectures can achieve the same or superior results. I think the fact that adding "attention" to LLMs made a huge difference means that we are probably still in the low hanging fruit stage of LLM architecture development, and a few more design improvements on a par with "attention" might lead to something that could legitimately be called AGI. Many people, myself included, believe that LLMs are now exhibiting emergent behavior properties. If that's true, then saying that LLMs are not intelligent because they just predict the next token of output is like saying collections of neurons cannot be intelligent because they just stimulate other neurons chemically.