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In terms of population reduction we're actually handling that by ourselves, as the absolute number of births peaked somewhere in 2014-2017 and started declining

by Tade0 3y ago

In terms of population reduction we're actually handling that by ourselves, as the absolute number of births peaked somewhere in 2014-2017 and started declining since. Overall most of the population growth now is younger, larger generations replacing older ones, with the demographic pyramid looking like a sausage being filled with meat. World population will peak by 2086 at ~10.4bln.

asadotzler 3y ago
That's still too many. Sure, it'll probably level, but why not get in front of that and find a good balance today instead of assuming it'll all just sort itself out magically?
- Tade0 3y ago
  It is sorting itself out "magically". If anything, we don't know what to do with ageing populations. The previous estimate put the population in 2100 at 11bln and growing, but then China had its census, which revealed a very different demographic situation than anticipated and the pandemic happened, upending those projections. Recently also India went below replacement fertility rate - that now makes the two most populous nations having crossed that threshold - also way ahead of previous projections. Estimates of populations of African countries are most likely overstated, just like fertility rates.
zelphirkalt 3y ago
That's only a prediction, an extrapolation by the UN I believe. Many things can change until then and we don't know anything for sure. Even if it peaks by 2086, the population mass until then, with our current way of living, will have devastated the planet.
- Tade0 3y ago
  Yes, I'm using UN numbers, as they have the best track record. Looking at past projections the population was typically slightly below the estimated figure, so the most likely scenario is that this will be the case here as well. In any case I don't think that devastation will come to pass, as China's emissions pretty much plateaued already and India's are looking like they did as well. The west has been in decline in that regard for years now. It's going to get worse - that's a given - but with the recent estimates giving a more precise number for emissions connected with land use change, global CO2 emissions might have plateaued, or even peaked a few years ago already.

by Tade0 3y ago

asadotzler 3y ago

That's still too many. Sure, it'll probably level, but why not get in front of that and find a good balance today instead of assuming it'll all just sort itself out magically?

Tade0 3y ago
It is sorting itself out "magically". If anything, we don't know what to do with ageing populations. The previous estimate put the population in 2100 at 11bln and growing, but then China had its census, which revealed a very different demographic situation than anticipated and the pandemic happened, upending those projections. Recently also India went below replacement fertility rate - that now makes the two most populous nations having crossed that threshold - also way ahead of previous projections. Estimates of populations of African countries are most likely overstated, just like fertility rates.

zelphirkalt 3y ago

That's only a prediction, an extrapolation by the UN I believe. Many things can change until then and we don't know anything for sure. Even if it peaks by 2086, the population mass until then, with our current way of living, will have devastated the planet.

Tade0 3y ago
Yes, I'm using UN numbers, as they have the best track record. Looking at past projections the population was typically slightly below the estimated figure, so the most likely scenario is that this will be the case here as well. In any case I don't think that devastation will come to pass, as China's emissions pretty much plateaued already and India's are looking like they did as well. The west has been in decline in that regard for years now. It's going to get worse - that's a given - but with the recent estimates giving a more precise number for emissions connected with land use change, global CO2 emissions might have plateaued, or even peaked a few years ago already.