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You’ve got that there are a lot of unintended pregnancies. You’ve got that there is an impact on the environment by humanity. That does not an argument make as

by Affric 3y ago

You’ve got that there are a lot of unintended pregnancies. You’ve got that there is an impact on the environment by humanity. That does not an argument make as much as the points in TFA.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
The argument is that more people is better. The Earth carries 8 billion people today, headed toward 10-11 billion by 2100. Why are there so many people? Unintended pregnancies. Less unintended pregnancies (empowered women, family planning, etc) constrains the pipeline of aggregate suffering (because the evidence is clear we're not going to do anything about it current state; why would we presume something would be done future state?) and human impact (less people = reduced aggregate impact). Fertility rate is falling rapidly everywhere in the world, somewhat slower in Africa, but evidence indicates the decline is locked in. Atmospheric CO2 budget busted, six out of nine planetary boundaries busted, hundreds of millions of people in extreme poverty, and climate change costs are going to be incredible (mitigation, migration and aid, etc). We Are Here. Someone advocating for more people for the goals TFA puts forth? They are either wildly selfish or wildly ignorant. When talking heads, politicians, or business leaders fret about a compressing population pyramid, they worry about labor costs, GDP, economic indicators, growth, and maintaining a status quo. They are worried that capitalism succeeded due to growth externalities and surplus labor. They don't care about the human, they care about the juice they've been squeezing. The US has constructed society as a human factory farm [1], for example. They don't value humans here today, and they want more? (please let me know if I have left any gaps in building context up wrt the mental model on this topic, I can provide additional citations for any assertions I've made) [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38583968 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38583968 | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38583281 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38583281
- Affric 3y ago
  Your edits have certainly improved both comments. Population decline doesn’t guarantee human liberty. Factory farms reflect the hierarchies we see in society. Not the other way around. I can see unfree (in a non-trivial sense) human labour becoming more valuable in a world with less human labour and no suitable substitutes. Global population is not quite orthogonal to many of our social problems.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    Surplus labor is power to those in power. Scarce labor empowers the individual. Compressing demographics is good for the individual, but bad for economic and political systems.
    - Affric 3y ago
      This is true to an extent but we have never really seen an information economy with a global labour scarcity. If we look at "advanced" economies with physical labour scarcities we see infrastructure deficits and inflation in asset prices. Having worked behind a computer and behind hammers, saws, on ladders, et cetera I think that political/economic collapse might not be ideal. With that said perhaps my socialist history teachers couldn't overcome the immense power of British propaganda against revolution.
      - toomuchtodo 3y ago
        If current state is a form of economic slavery, alternatives may be welcome. Depends on your point of view I suppose, as well as your role and position in the system. Some may welcome decline over current state and the cost it imposes. https://www.news18.com/india/frustrated-over-being-unemployed-man-dies-by-suicide-after-burning-all-his-degrees-8790716.html https://www.news18.com/india/frustrated-over-being-unemploye... https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/05/31/asia-pacific/china-youth-unemployment/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/05/31/asia-pacific/ch... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/26/the-rise-of-bai-lan-why-chinas-frustrated-youth-are-ready-to-let-it-rot https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/26/the-rise-of-ba... https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxjqyb/south-korea-69-hour-work-week https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxjqyb/south-korea-69-hour-w... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_work_environment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_work_environment https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_670171/lang--en/index.htm https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39504981 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39504981

by Affric 3y ago

You’ve got that there are a lot of unintended pregnancies. You’ve got that there is an impact on the environment by humanity. That does not an argument make as much as the points in TFA.

toomuchtodo 3y ago

The argument is that more people is better. The Earth carries 8 billion people today, headed toward 10-11 billion by 2100. Why are there so many people? Unintended pregnancies. Less unintended pregnancies (empowered women, family planning, etc) constrains the pipeline of aggregate suffering (because the evidence is clear we're not going to do anything about it current state; why would we presume something would be done future state?) and human impact (less people = reduced aggregate impact). Fertility rate is falling rapidly everywhere in the world, somewhat slower in Africa, but evidence indicates the decline is locked in. Atmospheric CO2 budget busted, six out of nine planetary boundaries busted, hundreds of millions of people in extreme poverty, and climate change costs are going to be incredible (mitigation, migration and aid, etc). We Are Here. Someone advocating for more people for the goals TFA puts forth? They are either wildly selfish or wildly ignorant. When talking heads, politicians, or business leaders fret about a compressing population pyramid, they worry about labor costs, GDP, economic indicators, growth, and maintaining a status quo. They are worried that capitalism succeeded due to growth externalities and surplus labor. They don't care about the human, they care about the juice they've been squeezing. The US has constructed society as a human factory farm [1], for example. They don't value humans here today, and they want more? (please let me know if I have left any gaps in building context up wrt the mental model on this topic, I can provide additional citations for any assertions I've made) [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38583968 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38583968 | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38583281 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38583281

Affric 3y ago
Your edits have certainly improved both comments. Population decline doesn’t guarantee human liberty. Factory farms reflect the hierarchies we see in society. Not the other way around. I can see unfree (in a non-trivial sense) human labour becoming more valuable in a world with less human labour and no suitable substitutes. Global population is not quite orthogonal to many of our social problems.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  Surplus labor is power to those in power. Scarce labor empowers the individual. Compressing demographics is good for the individual, but bad for economic and political systems.
  - Affric 3y ago
    This is true to an extent but we have never really seen an information economy with a global labour scarcity. If we look at "advanced" economies with physical labour scarcities we see infrastructure deficits and inflation in asset prices. Having worked behind a computer and behind hammers, saws, on ladders, et cetera I think that political/economic collapse might not be ideal. With that said perhaps my socialist history teachers couldn't overcome the immense power of British propaganda against revolution.
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      If current state is a form of economic slavery, alternatives may be welcome. Depends on your point of view I suppose, as well as your role and position in the system. Some may welcome decline over current state and the cost it imposes. https://www.news18.com/india/frustrated-over-being-unemployed-man-dies-by-suicide-after-burning-all-his-degrees-8790716.html https://www.news18.com/india/frustrated-over-being-unemploye... https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/05/31/asia-pacific/china-youth-unemployment/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/05/31/asia-pacific/ch... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/26/the-rise-of-bai-lan-why-chinas-frustrated-youth-are-ready-to-let-it-rot https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/26/the-rise-of-ba... https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxjqyb/south-korea-69-hour-work-week https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxjqyb/south-korea-69-hour-w... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_work_environment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_work_environment https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_670171/lang--en/index.htm https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39504981 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39504981