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Because everyone wants to bank/invest with the US. The money is being pushed in, not pulled in. If it were being pulled in, rates would have to be relatively hi
by smallmancontrov 3y ago
Because everyone wants to bank/invest with the US. The money is being pushed in, not pulled in. If it were being pulled in, rates would have to be relatively high to pull it in, but they are not, so it is being pushed in.
Why is money being pushed in? Put yourself in the shoes of a wealth-weighted non-US citizen. Wealth weighting is critical for understanding many aspects of economics yet systematically under-discussed to make the economy seem more altruistic than it is, but that's another story. So you have a bunch of money and you're outside the US. You want to preserve or grow your wealth, but your local government keeps devaluing the currency to pump the real economy, or hiking taxes, or there's a labor party that you think might get in power and do those things, or your government is literally called the Chinese Communist Party and is ideologically predisposed to confiscating your wealth tomorrow. Where do you put your savings? Some of it you still keep locally, for practical reasons, but the rest you invest abroad. Where? A peer country with the same issues? A developing country where investment never comes back? A small banking haven that will fold at the first sign of hard power? Or do you send it to the rabidly capitalist country with a 50 year track record of delivering investor returns and dozens of aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines to put between your bank account and the New Workers Collective of Yourlandia? That's right. You send it to the USA.
What happens when the money lands in the USA? It pumps assets, because that's what the money buys, and it dumps exports, which now must compete with a literal money printer for access to talent and resources. Asset holders do great. People who sell services to the asset holders do OK. People who build shit for export, though, oof. Software, chip designs, and movies might be lucrative enough that they don't have to care (thus far) but in general, oof.
"We used to make shit in this country, build shit. Now all we do is put our hand in the next guy's pocket." - The Wire
That's exactly right, but it's extremely important to understand the macro that drives this so that you can understand how the macro affects you and make informed guesses about where it is headed. For example, I wouldn't bet on this dynamic collapsing tomorrow.