7 ms·

The optimal path (at least if you're not going into a regulated/gatekept profession, or not from a very poor/disadvantaged background on a full ride, or using t

by rdl 3y ago

The optimal path (at least if you're not going into a regulated/gatekept profession, or not from a very poor/disadvantaged background on a full ride, or using the university program as an immigration pathway) seems to be: 1) Get accepted to a top school 2) Enroll and then drop out (figure out the minimum for your school to consider you a dropout -- I think you probably have to register and take classes for a semester, but you may be able to simply not pay the bill) 3) 20 under 20 (or just do a startup/get a job/continue with life directly) You get >50% of the value of the school (proxy for an IQ test, basically, although with the decline of testing this is less obvious -- still, even without rigorous testing, many people, especially those far from academia, consider "accepted to top school" to be valuable.) I basically did this (out of necessity; I couldn't afford to pay for MIT), but it's worked out well, and it's worked out pretty well for other people I know. With dropout you need to distinguish between "dropped out to do X, or for decent extenuating circumstance" vs "too much drugs", though, when looking at stats.

endisneigh 3y ago
That’s not a strategy - it’s just selection bias.
- usaar333 3y ago
  No,OP is arguing that conditioned on being able to get into a good school, it makes sense to just drop out as that captures enough of the signaling value.
  - endisneigh 3y ago
    I understand what they are saying and I’m saying the outcomes they are referring to are simply selection bias.
  - criley2 3y ago
    And the replier to OP is arguing that just because it worked for OP and a friend doesn't mean it's a good strategy. This is selection bias. I also think of it as a survivorship bias and some correlation/causation violations: Me and my successful friends (I don't hang out with unsuccessful people) have similar stories, therefore our choices are a pattern which can be followed to our successes. I could say "every successful engineer I know either abuses drugs or has in the past" and it could fundamentally be true for me and the group of people I know. But would you agree with me if I said that abusing drugs is a smart strategy to succeed?
  - armchairhacker 3y ago
    Everyone knows about the dropout billionaires (Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg, etc.), but nobody knows about the many people who dropped out to make a startup and failed. The majority of people who try startups fail. Unless you have a time-sensitive breakthrough idea, I think it’s better to take a pragmatic approach and at least finish college so you have a backup, or at least work on a startup in college, and then drop out if you become successful, not before.
- robocat 3y ago
  Selection bias is the primary value of many universities -- Harvard graduates 98% of its students: https://college.harvard.edu/resources/faq/what-harvards-graduation-rate https://college.harvard.edu/resources/faq/what-harvards-grad... The prestige is conferred by acceptance. Comment is saying that many people know this and the prestige of acceptance is often good enough without requiring the time investment of completing the degree (which clearly isn't threshing out poor performers). Choosing to be in the 2% shows intelligence to me!
throw_pm23 3y ago
Isn't this a bit too cynical? Is there nothing of value that can be, you know, learned at MIT? What about the social aspects of being in college?
- rdl 3y ago
  You can absolutely get value out of being at a good school (I'd say even a mid tier school has value) -- both academic and social. It's just...is that worth $200-300k and 4 years of your life? There would also be value in getting a great job as a top-tier-school dropout ("intern who just loves this place and how fast everything is progressing, seems like a shame I have to go to school in September, but I'll keep in touch" "Now that I'm at school every day I miss..." "can you come back and start monday?") I think you get an overall superior package from dropping out and doing 20 under 20, joining a top company, or doing other stuff at a top level (even if it fails) than from universities today -- particularly as universities have gotten dramatically worse over the past 30 years (and especially past 5 years), and the requirement for a degree doesn't really exist (absent immigration pathways) in cs/tech. I'd take "my YC friends" over "my college friends" overall, too. This all assumes a highly motivated and self directed student. I don't think university really saves "I don't know what I want to do, my parents are telling me to go to Harvard so I will"; IMO if you're 16-18 and have no idea what kind of things you enjoy you've already failed/been failed.
  - jncfhnb 3y ago
    Sounds neurotic imo. You are supposed to enjoy those 4 years.
    - MichaelZuo 3y ago
      Sounds like the parent is enjoying his chosen life path even more? Or certainly more than paying for 4 years at MIT. Not everyone is lucky enough to have rich enough parents to get a full ride, or to have poor enough parents to qualify for a free ride.
      - 3y ago
insane_dreamer 3y ago
what's 20 under 20?
- vhcr 3y ago
  GP probably meant Forbes' 30 under 30.
- rdl 3y ago
  Thiel's program as discussed in the article this post is about.
TMWNN 3y ago
> Enroll and then drop out (figure out the minimum for your school to consider you a dropout Stanford considers everyone who has completed three quarters (equivalent of two semesters) of a degree program alumni, and they are eligible for `@alumni.stanford.edu` accounts. <https://alumni.stanford.edu/help/alumni-email-faqs/ https://alumni.stanford.edu/help/alumni-email-faqs/>

by rdl 3y ago

endisneigh 3y ago

That’s not a strategy - it’s just selection bias.

usaar333 3y ago
No,OP is arguing that conditioned on being able to get into a good school, it makes sense to just drop out as that captures enough of the signaling value.
- endisneigh 3y ago
  I understand what they are saying and I’m saying the outcomes they are referring to are simply selection bias.
- criley2 3y ago
  And the replier to OP is arguing that just because it worked for OP and a friend doesn't mean it's a good strategy. This is selection bias. I also think of it as a survivorship bias and some correlation/causation violations: Me and my successful friends (I don't hang out with unsuccessful people) have similar stories, therefore our choices are a pattern which can be followed to our successes. I could say "every successful engineer I know either abuses drugs or has in the past" and it could fundamentally be true for me and the group of people I know. But would you agree with me if I said that abusing drugs is a smart strategy to succeed?
- armchairhacker 3y ago
  Everyone knows about the dropout billionaires (Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg, etc.), but nobody knows about the many people who dropped out to make a startup and failed. The majority of people who try startups fail. Unless you have a time-sensitive breakthrough idea, I think it’s better to take a pragmatic approach and at least finish college so you have a backup, or at least work on a startup in college, and then drop out if you become successful, not before.
robocat 3y ago
Selection bias is the primary value of many universities -- Harvard graduates 98% of its students: https://college.harvard.edu/resources/faq/what-harvards-graduation-rate https://college.harvard.edu/resources/faq/what-harvards-grad... The prestige is conferred by acceptance. Comment is saying that many people know this and the prestige of acceptance is often good enough without requiring the time investment of completing the degree (which clearly isn't threshing out poor performers). Choosing to be in the 2% shows intelligence to me!

throw_pm23 3y ago

Isn't this a bit too cynical? Is there nothing of value that can be, you know, learned at MIT? What about the social aspects of being in college?

rdl 3y ago
You can absolutely get value out of being at a good school (I'd say even a mid tier school has value) -- both academic and social. It's just...is that worth $200-300k and 4 years of your life? There would also be value in getting a great job as a top-tier-school dropout ("intern who just loves this place and how fast everything is progressing, seems like a shame I have to go to school in September, but I'll keep in touch" "Now that I'm at school every day I miss..." "can you come back and start monday?") I think you get an overall superior package from dropping out and doing 20 under 20, joining a top company, or doing other stuff at a top level (even if it fails) than from universities today -- particularly as universities have gotten dramatically worse over the past 30 years (and especially past 5 years), and the requirement for a degree doesn't really exist (absent immigration pathways) in cs/tech. I'd take "my YC friends" over "my college friends" overall, too. This all assumes a highly motivated and self directed student. I don't think university really saves "I don't know what I want to do, my parents are telling me to go to Harvard so I will"; IMO if you're 16-18 and have no idea what kind of things you enjoy you've already failed/been failed.
- jncfhnb 3y ago
  Sounds neurotic imo. You are supposed to enjoy those 4 years.
  - MichaelZuo 3y ago
    Sounds like the parent is enjoying his chosen life path even more? Or certainly more than paying for 4 years at MIT. Not everyone is lucky enough to have rich enough parents to get a full ride, or to have poor enough parents to qualify for a free ride.
    - 3y ago

insane_dreamer 3y ago

what's 20 under 20?

vhcr 3y ago
GP probably meant Forbes' 30 under 30.
rdl 3y ago
Thiel's program as discussed in the article this post is about.

TMWNN 3y ago

> Enroll and then drop out (figure out the minimum for your school to consider you a dropout Stanford considers everyone who has completed three quarters (equivalent of two semesters) of a degree program alumni, and they are eligible for `@alumni.stanford.edu` accounts. <https://alumni.stanford.edu/help/alumni-email-faqs/ https://alumni.stanford.edu/help/alumni-email-faqs/>