2 ms·
I couldn't follow this personally. It seems to be scattered notes pasted into a Google Doc saved to PDF on Google Drive without a whole lot of journalistic narr
by geor9e 3y ago
I couldn't follow this personally. It seems to be scattered notes pasted into a Google Doc saved to PDF on Google Drive without a whole lot of journalistic narration. I see what sounds like science but I cannot for the life of me find where those intermediate number came from. But, here's the conclusion, as a summary: "In my Bayesian analysis, modeled after Michael Weissman's analysis I concluded
PO(LL) / PO(ZO) = 1.7E-3
The product of my updates, I concluded
P(LL) / P(ZO) = 2.125
The final, then is
PO(LL) / PO(ZO) * P(LL) / P(ZO) = 3.6-3
I concluded that there is approximately a 1 in 300 chance that SARS-CoV-2 was the result of a lab leak." That is the structure of Bayes theorem, but I have no idea where the numbers came from.