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There are limits on secrets lifetime that's highly dependent on number of people in it. Someone even tried to calculate a formula In democratic societies it's
by deepsun 3y ago
There are limits on secrets lifetime that's highly dependent on number of people in it. Someone even tried to calculate a formula
In democratic societies it's very hard to keep a thing secret that involved 10+ people for 20+ years.
- roenxi 3y agoIf that calculation was completely wrong, how would anyone know? We never get a perfect snapshot of the world to compare with. What that stat really says is any conspiracy involving 10+ people, if the details manages to stay secret for 20 years, will likely never come to light.
- eganist 3y agoWith the US at least, it can probably be loosely tested by comparing declassified records (50 years on) with program size at the time.
- tsimionescu 3y agoWell, the Manhattan project is a good example of something that remained secret from the public for far longer than any formula would predict, given the gigantic amount of people involved (though of course other state actors knew about it long before).
- dessimus 3y agoI guess it depends on your definition of "remained secret from the public". For example, Kodak figured it out pretty quickly after the first tests because the radiation particles in the atmosphere were carried from the Southwest US to their factories in Rochester, NY, and affected their film production.
- rappatic 3y agoThis is Grimes' "On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs" (https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0147905 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0147905).
- boppo1 3y agoBummer I was excited for a scholarly paper by Claire Boucher.
- sneak 3y agoThe details of the Teller-Ulam design are still quite secret despite being known to several hundred people for 50+ years.