3 ms·
Eh, he had made exactly these sorts of bets before and he won those. Because it is gambling, eventually you lose a bet or two. While experienced gamblers learn
by mandevil 3y ago
Eh, he had made exactly these sorts of bets before and he won those. Because it is gambling, eventually you lose a bet or two. While experienced gamblers learn to manage risk- mostly by diversifying and betting small chunks of your pot on different, uncorrelated bets, SBF never did. He continually bet his entire net worth- and his freedom- in one big gamble again and again. And it worked for a while. Until it didn't. But if he did get this bet to pay off, then he would have done it again, clearly. And eventually, one of the gambles would break like this one did.
- jcranmer 3y agoThe crime isn't that FTX lost its gambles. The crime is that FTX was gambling with money it legally couldn't use for the gambles.
- mandevil 3y agoRight. I was responding to the comment that "it must be driving Sam insane though to think he could have made it all fine if he had hung on a few more months." But the problem is, even if he had made this gamble pay off, by his very nature the man was determined to bet his freedom and net worth again and again on, at best, 51-49 bets. Because he wasn't actually a very good gambler.
- webmaven 3y agoIn effect, it was an unsecured high-stakes side-bet on whether he would get caught.