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> (NVIDIA grossed 25bn last year, so 4x top line growth Q4 revenue was $22B, and guiding $24B for Q1, so likely $110Bish revenue in 2024. Their net income sho
by nickfromseattle 3y ago
> (NVIDIA grossed 25bn last year, so 4x top line growth
Q4 revenue was $22B, and guiding $24B for Q1, so likely $110Bish revenue in 2024.
Their net income should be in the same ballpark as Microsoft / Apple / Amazon / Google in 2024.
Meanwhile, Apple / Amazon / Google are growing ~10% YoY, at Nvidia's current growth rate they could surpass Mag7 net income in 2025/2026.
- gizmo 3y agoApple's net income was 97bn last year, Amazon's net income was 10bn. I'm not sure why you would even put those in the same category. Amazon has historically been valued on their free cash flow. For nvidia to have 100bn in net income they would need at at least 200bn in revenue. Apple has 100bn in net income on 400bn in revenue, for comparison. Ultimately the question is whether nvidia's moat (chips + cuda) will be durable. My guess is competitors will arrive soon and that nvidia's margins will go down. Right now nvidia seems untouchable, but reality will set in sometime next year.
- bryanlarsen 3y agowhat I believe are safe predictions (no dates, to make them extra safe). - total market size will go up - Nvidia's market share will go down - Nvidia's profit margin will go down The trillion dollar question then is whether the uplift from #1 is bigger than the downdraft from #2 and #3.