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> Maybe it is irrational, but at this point, it feels like the irrationality is likely to outlive anyone here. There is no rational universe where a company ca
by gjsman-1000 3y ago
> Maybe it is irrational, but at this point, it feels like the irrationality is likely to outlive anyone here.
There is no rational universe where a company can be worth almost $3T, and at the same time, investors know there is a ~% chance every year that Taiwan gets attacked or blockaded, and that company won't be selling anything for half a decade, minimum. It's like betting on the Death Star fully knowing the exhaust port issue exists. Complete with "but surely our fighters (er, US government) will prevent anyone from actually hitting that port."
At this point, I just believe the entire stock market is irrational and in the stratosphere; simply because, where else are you going to invest? Too many investors, not enough companies. But what goes up...
(Edit: I'm primarily referring to Apple here. I am aware NVIDIA primarily uses South Korea - but at the same time, if something were to happen to Taiwan, even NVIDIA will need to prioritize fab capacity.)
- dinkblam 3y agolooking at the stock market we can conclude that a taiwan invasion is deemed quite unlikely by investors. another million dollar question: is the likelihood of another magnitude ~8 SF earthquake priced into nasdaq?
- Negitivefrags 3y agoI would absolutely bet on the Death Star knowing the exhaust port issue exists. Just because some 1% chance that a new Jedi comes along actually happens doesn’t make it a bad bet.
- slingnow 3y agoYou're right. And to continue with this kind of reasoning: there's definitely a non-zero chance that humanity is wiped out by a large asteroid collision, or a fast spreading lethal disease, or nuclear war. Therefore since there's a non-zero chance that everything in the future will be worth exactly zero, everyone should stop investing in the market immediately.