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Curious to know what impact it will have on criminality. If dealers are making lot of money from cannabis, and the state removes that opportunity from them, th

by rvnx 3y ago

Curious to know what impact it will have on criminality. If dealers are making lot of money from cannabis, and the state removes that opportunity from them, then they may switch to more disturbing businesses.

coffeebeqn 3y ago
Most people don’t want to grow at home and the black (grey?) market will always be more profitable. Or maybe they’ll start a dispensary
hef19898 3y ago
The last big experiment around drug prosecutiond and legalization, the prohibition, showed a drop in crime after legalization. Out of curiosity, what other businesses you had in mind?
- rvnx 3y ago
  Seems very logical that it drops no ? Let's say that drugs are illegal and get prosecuted, and are counted as crime in the statistics. If you legalize them, your amount of crime in your statistics drops, but the actual acts are the same in real world.
  - hef19898 3y ago
    Not just the now legalized crime, but also related crime: theft, violence, money laundering, tax evasion...
  - pixl97 3y ago
    >but the actual acts are the same in real world. You mean the stealing for money for high priced black market drugs? You mean the shootouts/high speed chases where people run from the cops because they have a bag on them? Or do you mean lighting up a joint? The thing is, it's very easy to look at the statistics of violent crimes before and after. Also the vast majority of law enforcement agencies classify their crimes so you get detailed statistics of what kinds of crimes occur on a monthly/yearly basis.
pantalaimon 3y ago
They still can make money from it since it's not available for sale commercially (EU laws prohibit this). So you can only get it by joining a club or grow it yourself, both are a hassle for most people so the black market will remain, but I expect there to be a lot more competition since not only organized crime is now able to partake but anyone who (legally) grows.
robcohen 3y ago
I could see that being an effect in the short term, but I don't think there's a fixed amount of criminality in a given society. I'd bet there's a significant linear correlation with the size of the black market in society (in terms of annual revenue) and the amount of criminality. Reduce the amount of revenue, reduce the amount of criminality. Source: Nothing.
ffsm8 3y ago
> and the state removes that opportunity from them does it though? canabis still cant be sold, legally. from a realistic perspective, this only made the black market more valueable, as the dealers no longer have to worry about prosecution as long as they're carrying <25 grams. The legislation is definitely a step in the right direction, but I dont think that it'll have a significant impact on the black market.
- rvnx 3y ago
  True, I didn't think about that, it actually makes their job easier and maybe... increase competition (though for them, it seems more beneficial than harming their business)
kmlx 3y ago
> If dealers are making lot of money from cannabis from i've read cannabis is not a money making product for "dealers". cannabis is used to introduce customers to other much more profitable drugs.
- diggan 3y ago
  The ever-popular "gateway" theory (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gateway_drug_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gateway_drug_effect) but applied to the dealers. As someone who used to deal some every now and then, I think I could count on one hand the amount of people I sold weed to, who would be OK with whatever drug, the rest were only purchasing cannabis and cannabis only. They didn't reach out to me to "get high no matter what cost" but specifically to "get high by smoking cannabis". If I didn't have cannabis, there was no interest in getting anything.
bregma 3y ago
Cannabis sales and possession has been legal in Canada for, what, 6 years or so. You only need to be of a certain minimum age and pay the excise duty (and find a way to dispose of the extreme packaging). The black market now accounts for only about 60% of the cannabis sales. Hard drug use like crack and fentanyl has become rampant as dealers lace their product to compete on a kick level (the legal stuff is relatively mild). There's currently a shakeout and consolidation in the legal cannabis industry going on due to overinvestment. The mom-and-pop storefronts that cropped up on seemingly every street corner during the pandemic are starting to disappear. Regulatory charges and overhead eat much of the profit. There is still trouble getting financing for the legal industry because of US legislation preventing banks that do business in that country from lending money to such businessess outside of the USA, legal or not. Black market dealers do not have any of these issues.
- adamgordonbell 3y ago
  Evidence that the fentanyl problem is driven by pot legalization? Is there less opioid problems where they didn't legalize? Yeah, there are a million pot stores, and many closing but that's just a bubble for you.
bondarchuk 3y ago
Or maybe they'll get an office job.
rqtwteye 3y ago
I think they will just learn to code.
kjkjadksj 3y ago
There is still a black market in legal states in the US. The tax burden is high.
faeriechangling 3y ago
I’ve seen it legalized around these parts and pot dealers didn’t turn to murder for hire or extortion rackets, they just shrugged their shoulders and found another regular job. We did however waste a lot less time prosecuting imaginary crimes.

by rvnx 3y ago

coffeebeqn 3y ago

Most people don’t want to grow at home and the black (grey?) market will always be more profitable. Or maybe they’ll start a dispensary

hef19898 3y ago

The last big experiment around drug prosecutiond and legalization, the prohibition, showed a drop in crime after legalization. Out of curiosity, what other businesses you had in mind?

rvnx 3y ago
Seems very logical that it drops no ? Let's say that drugs are illegal and get prosecuted, and are counted as crime in the statistics. If you legalize them, your amount of crime in your statistics drops, but the actual acts are the same in real world.
- hef19898 3y ago
  Not just the now legalized crime, but also related crime: theft, violence, money laundering, tax evasion...
- pixl97 3y ago
  >but the actual acts are the same in real world. You mean the stealing for money for high priced black market drugs? You mean the shootouts/high speed chases where people run from the cops because they have a bag on them? Or do you mean lighting up a joint? The thing is, it's very easy to look at the statistics of violent crimes before and after. Also the vast majority of law enforcement agencies classify their crimes so you get detailed statistics of what kinds of crimes occur on a monthly/yearly basis.

pantalaimon 3y ago

They still can make money from it since it's not available for sale commercially (EU laws prohibit this). So you can only get it by joining a club or grow it yourself, both are a hassle for most people so the black market will remain, but I expect there to be a lot more competition since not only organized crime is now able to partake but anyone who (legally) grows.

robcohen 3y ago

I could see that being an effect in the short term, but I don't think there's a fixed amount of criminality in a given society. I'd bet there's a significant linear correlation with the size of the black market in society (in terms of annual revenue) and the amount of criminality. Reduce the amount of revenue, reduce the amount of criminality. Source: Nothing.

ffsm8 3y ago

> and the state removes that opportunity from them does it though? canabis still cant be sold, legally. from a realistic perspective, this only made the black market more valueable, as the dealers no longer have to worry about prosecution as long as they're carrying <25 grams. The legislation is definitely a step in the right direction, but I dont think that it'll have a significant impact on the black market.

rvnx 3y ago
True, I didn't think about that, it actually makes their job easier and maybe... increase competition (though for them, it seems more beneficial than harming their business)

kmlx 3y ago

> If dealers are making lot of money from cannabis from i've read cannabis is not a money making product for "dealers". cannabis is used to introduce customers to other much more profitable drugs.

diggan 3y ago
The ever-popular "gateway" theory (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gateway_drug_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gateway_drug_effect) but applied to the dealers. As someone who used to deal some every now and then, I think I could count on one hand the amount of people I sold weed to, who would be OK with whatever drug, the rest were only purchasing cannabis and cannabis only. They didn't reach out to me to "get high no matter what cost" but specifically to "get high by smoking cannabis". If I didn't have cannabis, there was no interest in getting anything.

bregma 3y ago

Cannabis sales and possession has been legal in Canada for, what, 6 years or so. You only need to be of a certain minimum age and pay the excise duty (and find a way to dispose of the extreme packaging). The black market now accounts for only about 60% of the cannabis sales. Hard drug use like crack and fentanyl has become rampant as dealers lace their product to compete on a kick level (the legal stuff is relatively mild). There's currently a shakeout and consolidation in the legal cannabis industry going on due to overinvestment. The mom-and-pop storefronts that cropped up on seemingly every street corner during the pandemic are starting to disappear. Regulatory charges and overhead eat much of the profit. There is still trouble getting financing for the legal industry because of US legislation preventing banks that do business in that country from lending money to such businessess outside of the USA, legal or not. Black market dealers do not have any of these issues.

adamgordonbell 3y ago
Evidence that the fentanyl problem is driven by pot legalization? Is there less opioid problems where they didn't legalize? Yeah, there are a million pot stores, and many closing but that's just a bubble for you.

bondarchuk 3y ago

Or maybe they'll get an office job.

rqtwteye 3y ago

I think they will just learn to code.

kjkjadksj 3y ago

There is still a black market in legal states in the US. The tax burden is high.

faeriechangling 3y ago

I’ve seen it legalized around these parts and pot dealers didn’t turn to murder for hire or extortion rackets, they just shrugged their shoulders and found another regular job. We did however waste a lot less time prosecuting imaginary crimes.