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Google: 1.80T (P/E 26.81) Apple: 2.84T (P/E 28.60) Microsoft: 3.07T (P/E 37.47) Nvidia: 2.02T (P/E 67.63) Quite astonishing.

by cj 3y ago

CamelCaseName 3y ago
Trailing vs. Forward P/E.
- lm28469 3y ago
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hR45ja3VjGE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hR45ja3VjGE HFV for Hypothetical Future Value: get ready for the quazillion dollar!
  - saalweachter 3y ago
    Can't spell "hypothetically" without "hype".
    - Sohcahtoa82 3y ago
      We need to coin the term "hyperthetically". "hypo" means under or less than.
Wytwwww 3y ago
Nvidia's valuation is perfectly reasonable if you expect that they'll manage to grow at a similar pace for the next couple of years and will retain their obscenely high margins. Of course for that not only does the AI hype need to continue but their competitors need to fail so bad they wouldn't even be able to offer anything even with 2-5x lower margins. OTH Especially Apple is not doing that great at all (and if above assumptions hold they are much more overvalued than Nvidia is). Their revenue this year is estimated to be lower than in 2022 while Nvidia's more than doubled and Microsoft is growing 5% or so per year.
jejeyyy77 3y ago
the market is forward looking - the sooner you understand that, the less money you will lose ;)
- HDThoreaun 3y ago
  If the market was looking forward theyd see that nvidia's product offering has minimal moat and no chance to stay differentiated over a timeline long enough for this valuation to make sense.
  - jejeyyy77 3y ago
    have you been paying attention?
    - HDThoreaun 3y ago
      Nvidia's competitors are starting to release solid hardware. They just need to release all the libraries with their open source CUDA alternative and nvidia's margins go from 75% to a more reasonable 20-30%. Every big tech company is giving nvidia billions of dollars a year, the incentives to get a cuda alternative working are too high for it to not happen.
      - dagmx 3y ago
        > They just need to release all the libraries with their open source CUDA alternative Yeah but they've tried. Year after year for the last decade. They keep failing. Maybe they're more motivated now? But CUDA isn't a moat because it's unassailable, it's a moat because nobody trying to cross it knows how to operate a shovel
        HDThoreaun 3y ago
        Intel and AMD have tried, but their software divisions are incompetent, and there was much less money in GPUs pre LLMs. Now every big tech in the world is putting resources toward this as theyre sick of the nvidia tax.
blackoil 3y ago
67.63 is trailing PE. If you look at the Forward PE, it is at much more reasonable 38.76. Considering its growth in Q4, it is not that crazy. Though now the question is how long they can sustain it.

Google: 1.80T (P/E 26.81) Apple: 2.84T (P/E 28.60) Microsoft: 3.07T (P/E 37.47) Nvidia: 2.02T (P/E 67.63) Quite astonishing.

by cj 3y ago

Google: 1.80T (P/E 26.81) Apple: 2.84T (P/E 28.60) Microsoft: 3.07T (P/E 37.47) Nvidia: 2.02T (P/E 67.63) Quite astonishing.

CamelCaseName 3y ago

Trailing vs. Forward P/E.

lm28469 3y ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hR45ja3VjGE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hR45ja3VjGE HFV for Hypothetical Future Value: get ready for the quazillion dollar!
- saalweachter 3y ago
  Can't spell "hypothetically" without "hype".
  - Sohcahtoa82 3y ago
    We need to coin the term "hyperthetically". "hypo" means under or less than.

Wytwwww 3y ago

Nvidia's valuation is perfectly reasonable if you expect that they'll manage to grow at a similar pace for the next couple of years and will retain their obscenely high margins. Of course for that not only does the AI hype need to continue but their competitors need to fail so bad they wouldn't even be able to offer anything even with 2-5x lower margins. OTH Especially Apple is not doing that great at all (and if above assumptions hold they are much more overvalued than Nvidia is). Their revenue this year is estimated to be lower than in 2022 while Nvidia's more than doubled and Microsoft is growing 5% or so per year.

jejeyyy77 3y ago

the market is forward looking - the sooner you understand that, the less money you will lose ;)

HDThoreaun 3y ago
If the market was looking forward theyd see that nvidia's product offering has minimal moat and no chance to stay differentiated over a timeline long enough for this valuation to make sense.
- jejeyyy77 3y ago
  have you been paying attention?
  - HDThoreaun 3y ago
    Nvidia's competitors are starting to release solid hardware. They just need to release all the libraries with their open source CUDA alternative and nvidia's margins go from 75% to a more reasonable 20-30%. Every big tech company is giving nvidia billions of dollars a year, the incentives to get a cuda alternative working are too high for it to not happen.
    - dagmx 3y ago
      > They just need to release all the libraries with their open source CUDA alternative Yeah but they've tried. Year after year for the last decade. They keep failing. Maybe they're more motivated now? But CUDA isn't a moat because it's unassailable, it's a moat because nobody trying to cross it knows how to operate a shovel
      - HDThoreaun 3y ago
        Intel and AMD have tried, but their software divisions are incompetent, and there was much less money in GPUs pre LLMs. Now every big tech in the world is putting resources toward this as theyre sick of the nvidia tax.

blackoil 3y ago

67.63 is trailing PE. If you look at the Forward PE, it is at much more reasonable 38.76. Considering its growth in Q4, it is not that crazy. Though now the question is how long they can sustain it.