5 ms·

I disagree, we are clearly in the end phase. Generative AI (not necessarily LLM) is clearly in a completely different category from the things you describe. Sup

I disagree, we are clearly in the end phase. Generative AI (not necessarily LLM) is clearly in a completely different category from the things you describe. Suppose it becomes such that it’s equivalent to a human using all the tools of today, but instantly. What would there be to do? I guess we still need to mine for the natural materials, so there’s that.

fnordpiglet 3y ago
Portrait painters and tunnel diggers said the same things. Impressionism, expressionism, modern art, etc weren’t obvious outcomes. The thing AI lacks, and will lack for the foreseeable future as we have a much weaker grasp on its mechanisms, is agency and at the root of that creativity. Most movie making today is a lot of mechanical craftsmanship and a lot of that will probably disappear. The bar for good will be raised dramatically. But the demand for the best won’t disappear, it’ll likely amplify as the stakes get higher. I will wager you we will see a dramatic realignment in the sorts of work that go into production, but the demand for those skills will be so high and the value so immense that we will see a profusion of new work, better output, and more employment in the arts.
- endisneigh 3y ago
  Creatives are already paid very little, so if what you’re saying is true that is not a good sign despite your enthusiasm. Most of white collar work is very much rooted in the “mechanical” tasks.
  - fnordpiglet 3y ago
    And those tasks will emphasize the creative in the future. At one time a human computer made a ton of money. However they’re a novelty today. Mathematics and computer science are a much more creative endeavor using mechanical computers than someone who could tabulate large numbers rapidly in their head. I do think rote learning is about to seriously take a step back in the world and the future won’t reward the ability to turn the crank nearly as much. The white collar readjustment will be realizing memorizing facts is much less valuable than understanding and synthesizing.
    - endisneigh 3y ago
      We will have to agree to disagree. The real world is about solving actual problems, not solving arbitrary “creative” tasks. And even if it were, go look at salaries in “creative” professions vs engineering.
      - TheOtherHobbes 3y ago
        "Actual problems" like crypto scams, NFTs, and both mainstream and "new" manipulations of value tokens that don't even exist? Or an industry like health insurance, which doesn't even need to exist? As for salaries - you can be a hopelessly mediocre engineer, doctor, lawyer, etc, and still earn good money. You can even be a bad professional who is actively incompetent and still earn good money. The fact that salaries can be hyped so they don't accurately reflect social value is a symptom of the problem, not an explanation for it.
        endisneigh 3y ago
        Your examples are strange. Why do you think crypto or NFTs are actual problems I was referring to? Why shouldn’t health insurance exist? Most lawyers make terrible money. Doctors don’t make a lot of money in most countries.

fnordpiglet 3y ago

Portrait painters and tunnel diggers said the same things. Impressionism, expressionism, modern art, etc weren’t obvious outcomes. The thing AI lacks, and will lack for the foreseeable future as we have a much weaker grasp on its mechanisms, is agency and at the root of that creativity. Most movie making today is a lot of mechanical craftsmanship and a lot of that will probably disappear. The bar for good will be raised dramatically. But the demand for the best won’t disappear, it’ll likely amplify as the stakes get higher. I will wager you we will see a dramatic realignment in the sorts of work that go into production, but the demand for those skills will be so high and the value so immense that we will see a profusion of new work, better output, and more employment in the arts.

endisneigh 3y ago
Creatives are already paid very little, so if what you’re saying is true that is not a good sign despite your enthusiasm. Most of white collar work is very much rooted in the “mechanical” tasks.
- fnordpiglet 3y ago
  And those tasks will emphasize the creative in the future. At one time a human computer made a ton of money. However they’re a novelty today. Mathematics and computer science are a much more creative endeavor using mechanical computers than someone who could tabulate large numbers rapidly in their head. I do think rote learning is about to seriously take a step back in the world and the future won’t reward the ability to turn the crank nearly as much. The white collar readjustment will be realizing memorizing facts is much less valuable than understanding and synthesizing.
  - endisneigh 3y ago
    We will have to agree to disagree. The real world is about solving actual problems, not solving arbitrary “creative” tasks. And even if it were, go look at salaries in “creative” professions vs engineering.
    - TheOtherHobbes 3y ago
      "Actual problems" like crypto scams, NFTs, and both mainstream and "new" manipulations of value tokens that don't even exist? Or an industry like health insurance, which doesn't even need to exist? As for salaries - you can be a hopelessly mediocre engineer, doctor, lawyer, etc, and still earn good money. You can even be a bad professional who is actively incompetent and still earn good money. The fact that salaries can be hyped so they don't accurately reflect social value is a symptom of the problem, not an explanation for it.
      - endisneigh 3y ago
        Your examples are strange. Why do you think crypto or NFTs are actual problems I was referring to? Why shouldn’t health insurance exist? Most lawyers make terrible money. Doctors don’t make a lot of money in most countries.