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>In heads up no-rake NLHE where GTO exists: do you agree that anyone playing GTO has nonnegative EV against any player regardless of their strategy? In heads-u
by Kranar 3y ago
>In heads up no-rake NLHE where GTO exists: do you agree that anyone playing GTO has nonnegative EV against any player regardless of their strategy?
In heads-up, no-rake, NLHE implicit collusion is not possible, so yes playing GTO has a non-negative EV.
>I agree with you that you can probably construct some pathological multiplayer situations where collusion forces negative EV on a "GTO" player - assuming GTO exists in this setting.
GTO always exists, but in the presence of implicit collusion it may result in a negative EV.
> feel pretty strongly that this is not representative of practical reality.
GTO is not representative of practical reality. Very very few people, if anyone, really plays GTO poker consistently. It's an excellent theoretical result, and using GTO solvers and simulators can build up good intuition, but the idea that there are these poker savants playing GTO poker in 6+ handed games is mostly a myth.
Also your claim that you have never seen anyone play against poor players have a negative EV kind of gives away that you are likely overconfident and possibly naive about your position.
I highly doubt you have been in a position to calculate someone's EV while playing poker, or assess whether someone is playing GTO poker against multiple opponents who are bad. And assuming you did possess this amazing power, GTO poker does not guarantee against losses against bad players over any particular night or week of poker. So if you've never observed that then you are likely biased in your observation. You forgot/underweighted the scenarios where someone playing really well lost money to bad players and overweighed the scenarios where someone playing well made money against bad players.
My experience is that talk about GTO poker is mostly used by people to add a more sophisticated and technical dimension to poker, people like to say that a poker play was GTO because it makes it sound authoritative and you can geek out over it, so to speak. People do the same thing across many hobbies including sports.
In reality the best advice for playing poker if you want to be profitable is to find fish and play against them. The sad truth is that there's no shortage of gambling addicts to take advantage of, or people who overestimate their abilities but lack discipline, or heck are simply rich and play poker socially and have no problem losing money and have fun doing so.
That's far more likely to yield profitable results than pretending that you can play an incredibly volatile and dynamic game like poker with anything remotely resembling game theory optimal.
- highfrequency 3y agoEh I don’t think we disagree on anything fundamental - and I hadn’t considered the collusive case so I’m glad you brought it up. I see good poker players lose to bad players in a single session all the time. Even if you are crushing with a +15 BB/100 hand winrate you’re still going to lose 30-40% of your sessions. That is not an indication of negative EV. I’ve never seen someone who understood poker very well have a losing record over a long period of time against bad players. I don’t disagree about humans never playing actual GTO, which is why I use phrases like “remotely close” to optimal. My point is that the bar is low enough that any reasonable deep attempt at learning and approximating optimal play should clear the bar to be +EV against bad players. Parent comment says “if you’re playing GTO against clowns you’ll go broke because they are too bad and you are too GTO.” I strongly disagree with this - the reason you have negative EV is not because you are “too GTO.” If you losing money in expectation you are just not very good at the game yet. What is needed is to understand the game better (and moving closer to optimal play is a reasonable goal). I suspect you agree on this - any reasonably good player should have positive EV against fish, regardless of whether they go out of their way to exploit.