> And yet, like everyone else, I genuinely feel that I'm probably right This is the thing with black swan events. The more pedestrian explanations are almost

> And yet, like everyone else, I genuinely feel that I'm probably right This is the thing with black swan events. The more pedestrian explanations are almost always true, but then there's a tiny fraction of the time where you're much, much better off having taken a bit of an alarmist view.