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> ASML is as much a bottleneck as TSMC. Yes, this is _one_ of the reasons I think TSMC is fairly safe from doomsday theories like China trying to cut it off fr
by tomxor 3y ago
> ASML is as much a bottleneck as TSMC.
Yes, this is _one_ of the reasons I think TSMC is fairly safe from doomsday theories like China trying to cut it off from the world. Because that would risk it being cut of from ASML, and they are unlikely to be anywhere close to making their own machines before grinding to a halt.
Short term, it's mutually assured fabrication destruction; Long term, the world needs more redundancy and competition in both areas.
- hardware2win 3y ago>like China trying to cut it off from the world. Because that would risk it being cut of from ASML, and they are unlikely to be anywhere close But... arent they already cut from ASML? US disallowed ASML to sell advanced tech to China
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- The_Colonel 3y agoChina bought a lot of ASML equipment before the sanctions + they can still buy the less state of the art equipment.
- mnau 3y agoAt this time, US sanctions cover even NXT:1980Di (Netherlands will be soon pressured to do the same). That is from 2016 and is least advanced DI ASML still makes.
- daveguy 3y agoI think the idea was that China cutting off TSMC would prevent TSMC from accessing ASML fab tools and maintenance, which would quickly degrade TSMC capabilities. Edited to specify China as the one who would potentially cut off TSMC from the rest of the world, which would also cut off ASML->TSMC.
- s3p 3y agoThe US did not impose any restrictions on TSMC's access to ASML
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- jauntywundrkind 3y agoTSMC isn't cut off. If China invaded then TSMC would be.
- renewiltord 3y agoWell, SMEE is rumored to have 28 nm already. China isn't going to get EUV lithography because the US is not going to give them that. ASML can't sell them those machines because the US controls their EUV license and makes the rules. But the majority of chips they need can be built on this process if they have it. They don't need ASML if they got here. And they can't have ASML's new stuff. Doesn't sound like much of a deterrent.
- ajross 3y ago> Well, SMEE is rumored to have 28 nm already FWIW, that's about where Intel was 14-15 years ago. That's a reasonable process for lots of logic chips, but not for modern mobile devices or datacenter machine learning engines.
- renewiltord 3y agoYep but it's a huge leap forward if indigenous. They can get to 22 nm from there which is enough for the majority of microchips. ASML is only relevant to them if they need to get to present day GPUs and mobile devices (as you said) and I don't think that's that important for their needs. But even if it is relevant they have no access to ASML tech because ASML only has that because the basic research is US-owned and the USG will enforce their export controls on ASML and will enforce that critical components are made here so playing nice with Taiwan won't get China any closer to EUV lithography. What /u/tomxor is saying makes no sense.
- ajross 3y agoNot clear to me that it's "indigenous". They're surely buying lots of ASML and TEL and AMAT tools like everyone else is, just not the fancy new EUV stuff they can't get. Absolutely it would be news if China was generating 28nm chips with a 100% domestic industrial base. But I don't think that's the case?
- rdl 3y agoASML machines can presumably be rendered largely worthless remotely through firmware (or by being forced to operate out of design spec for a while, causing physical damage), and I have to assume TSMC/Taiwan/US have that stuff pre-rigged (physically or software), too.
- oogali 3y agoA Stuxnet redux.
- 15155 3y agoThese are some of the cleanest rooms on the face of the planet. These processes are ultra-sensitive to any kind of physical disturbance, dirt, etc. These individual machines are hand-assembled by ASML on-location. TSMC under peacetime conditions has issues obtaining acceptable yields on this equipment. In an armed conflict, there will be no operation at all, much less one that requires a Stuxnet-style attack to shut down.