8 ms·

Competition is great, but also in this case geographical redundancy; having the entire world depend on chips produced in one of the world's most likely military

by rdl 3y ago

Competition is great, but also in this case geographical redundancy; having the entire world depend on chips produced in one of the world's most likely military hotspots is terrifying. Still pretty amazing that there's basically one global top-tier chip supply chain, with hundreds of companies, some of which are sole-source at the scale of 6-12mo+. ASML is as much a bottleneck as TSMC.

tromp 3y ago
> ASML is as much a bottleneck as TSMC. A bigger one, since all of TSMC, Samsung, and Intel rely on ASML. It could be many years, if not decades, before ASML gets some serious competition.
- baq 3y ago
  At least if all ASML fabs gets blown up, the existing equipment will still be functional for a few years...
  - 15155 3y ago
    Where will this existing equipment be operating if an EU nation has a critical piece of infrastructure "blown up?"
- Fronzie 3y ago
  And ASML relies on Zeiss, which is as big a bottleneck as ASML and TSMC.
tomxor 3y ago
> ASML is as much a bottleneck as TSMC. Yes, this is _one_ of the reasons I think TSMC is fairly safe from doomsday theories like China trying to cut it off from the world. Because that would risk it being cut of from ASML, and they are unlikely to be anywhere close to making their own machines before grinding to a halt. Short term, it's mutually assured fabrication destruction; Long term, the world needs more redundancy and competition in both areas.
- hardware2win 3y ago
  >like China trying to cut it off from the world. Because that would risk it being cut of from ASML, and they are unlikely to be anywhere close But... arent they already cut from ASML? US disallowed ASML to sell advanced tech to China
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - The_Colonel 3y ago
    China bought a lot of ASML equipment before the sanctions + they can still buy the less state of the art equipment.
    - mnau 3y ago
      At this time, US sanctions cover even NXT:1980Di (Netherlands will be soon pressured to do the same). That is from 2016 and is least advanced DI ASML still makes.
  - daveguy 3y ago
    I think the idea was that China cutting off TSMC would prevent TSMC from accessing ASML fab tools and maintenance, which would quickly degrade TSMC capabilities. Edited to specify China as the one who would potentially cut off TSMC from the rest of the world, which would also cut off ASML->TSMC.
    - s3p 3y ago
      The US did not impose any restrictions on TSMC's access to ASML
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
  - jauntywundrkind 3y ago
ysofunny 3y ago
I think it a testament to the collectively perceived value of semiconductors. I'm saying IMO no matter where in the world the fabs were that place would be a military hotspot. the miltary hotspotness will follow the top of the line fabs additionally, I take it as evidence of the perceived value that people gone to great lengths to avoid widespread proliferation of this techniques because scarcity is a value amplifier. so by keeping it scarce its value increases. so if I'm correct, if/when there are multiple comparable fabs in multiple parts of the world the geopolitical risks should go down in taiwan finally, having typed it out, I feel my whole argument is wrong...
- hnfong 3y ago
  > I think it a testament to the collectively perceived value of semiconductors. Taiwan has been a subject to threat of invasion for a long time before TSMC was a thing. A short while ago Intel had the best fabs and CPU chips. Nobody thought another country invading USA was plausible. > so if I'm correct, if/when there are multiple comparable fabs in multiple parts of the world the geopolitical risks should go down in taiwan No. Taiwan has for decades been a point of geopolitical tension between powers around in Pacific (which currently is US and China). The existence of TSMC makes the rest of the world care more (or scared more), but the PRC isn't just going to give up its decades long goal of taking over Taiwan because there's another TSMC somewhere else (or even in mainland China).
  - raccoonDivider 3y ago
    The US might have less incentive to support Taiwan though. They've never really committed to defending it.
- babypuncher 3y ago
  I feel like it would be a lot harder for China's military to target a fab in landlocked Arizona than one in an island nation 100 miles off the coast of Xiamen.
monocasa 3y ago
We're going to get that. We only have a handful of nodes left, so every geopolitically relevant region is scrambling to have last leading edge fabs on their soil for defense use cases if nothing else. My guess is that US, China, and Taiwan will all have essentially equivalent fabs, Korea and the EU will have what look like cheaper versions until everyone figures out that they don't have the yields the promise and so it's actually more expensive but propped up by .gov money (even more than the first group). I wouldn't be surprised to see another one shared by Brazil, India, South Africa (and maybe Russia) that kind of works, enough for low volume defense projects.

by rdl 3y ago

tromp 3y ago

> ASML is as much a bottleneck as TSMC. A bigger one, since all of TSMC, Samsung, and Intel rely on ASML. It could be many years, if not decades, before ASML gets some serious competition.

baq 3y ago
At least if all ASML fabs gets blown up, the existing equipment will still be functional for a few years...
- 15155 3y ago
  Where will this existing equipment be operating if an EU nation has a critical piece of infrastructure "blown up?"
Fronzie 3y ago
And ASML relies on Zeiss, which is as big a bottleneck as ASML and TSMC.

tomxor 3y ago

> ASML is as much a bottleneck as TSMC. Yes, this is _one_ of the reasons I think TSMC is fairly safe from doomsday theories like China trying to cut it off from the world. Because that would risk it being cut of from ASML, and they are unlikely to be anywhere close to making their own machines before grinding to a halt. Short term, it's mutually assured fabrication destruction; Long term, the world needs more redundancy and competition in both areas.

hardware2win 3y ago
>like China trying to cut it off from the world. Because that would risk it being cut of from ASML, and they are unlikely to be anywhere close But... arent they already cut from ASML? US disallowed ASML to sell advanced tech to China
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- The_Colonel 3y ago
  China bought a lot of ASML equipment before the sanctions + they can still buy the less state of the art equipment.
  - mnau 3y ago
    At this time, US sanctions cover even NXT:1980Di (Netherlands will be soon pressured to do the same). That is from 2016 and is least advanced DI ASML still makes.
- daveguy 3y ago
  I think the idea was that China cutting off TSMC would prevent TSMC from accessing ASML fab tools and maintenance, which would quickly degrade TSMC capabilities. Edited to specify China as the one who would potentially cut off TSMC from the rest of the world, which would also cut off ASML->TSMC.
  - s3p 3y ago
    The US did not impose any restrictions on TSMC's access to ASML
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
- jauntywundrkind 3y ago

ysofunny 3y ago

I think it a testament to the collectively perceived value of semiconductors. I'm saying IMO no matter where in the world the fabs were that place would be a military hotspot. the miltary hotspotness will follow the top of the line fabs additionally, I take it as evidence of the perceived value that people gone to great lengths to avoid widespread proliferation of this techniques because scarcity is a value amplifier. so by keeping it scarce its value increases. so if I'm correct, if/when there are multiple comparable fabs in multiple parts of the world the geopolitical risks should go down in taiwan finally, having typed it out, I feel my whole argument is wrong...

hnfong 3y ago
> I think it a testament to the collectively perceived value of semiconductors. Taiwan has been a subject to threat of invasion for a long time before TSMC was a thing. A short while ago Intel had the best fabs and CPU chips. Nobody thought another country invading USA was plausible. > so if I'm correct, if/when there are multiple comparable fabs in multiple parts of the world the geopolitical risks should go down in taiwan No. Taiwan has for decades been a point of geopolitical tension between powers around in Pacific (which currently is US and China). The existence of TSMC makes the rest of the world care more (or scared more), but the PRC isn't just going to give up its decades long goal of taking over Taiwan because there's another TSMC somewhere else (or even in mainland China).
- raccoonDivider 3y ago
  The US might have less incentive to support Taiwan though. They've never really committed to defending it.
babypuncher 3y ago
I feel like it would be a lot harder for China's military to target a fab in landlocked Arizona than one in an island nation 100 miles off the coast of Xiamen.

monocasa 3y ago

We're going to get that. We only have a handful of nodes left, so every geopolitically relevant region is scrambling to have last leading edge fabs on their soil for defense use cases if nothing else. My guess is that US, China, and Taiwan will all have essentially equivalent fabs, Korea and the EU will have what look like cheaper versions until everyone figures out that they don't have the yields the promise and so it's actually more expensive but propped up by .gov money (even more than the first group). I wouldn't be surprised to see another one shared by Brazil, India, South Africa (and maybe Russia) that kind of works, enough for low volume defense projects.