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Who will be Intel's customers? Will Intel compete with them?

by throwaway4good 3y ago

throwaway4good 3y ago
Apple - hardly. AMD - no. NVDIA - maybe. Qualcomm - probably.
- signatoremo 3y ago
  The answer will be: All of them, plus Microsoft, Amazon, Google. TSMC and Samsung can’t meet the demand of those companies. If Intel can be TSMC’s customer then surely AMD can be Intel’s customer, so is Apple. Intel’s foundry business is structured to be separated from its processor business
  - throwaway4good 3y ago
    I listed TSMC's biggest customers - and really AMD using Intel foundries? You cannot be serious. The assumption is that there is going to be a lot more demand. Even after cutting China out which is like 1/3 of global demand. The assumption is that will be driven by AI, mostly in data centers. Could be. Otherwise Intel foundry services will face an uphill battle vs. TSMC.
    - signatoremo 3y ago
      Again, Intel is a fierce competitor to TSMC, yet they are also TSMC’s customer. AMD will be the same to Intel if they can’t secure enough volume from TSMC. TSMC’s revenue is like 70 times of Intel’s foundry business. Intel only plans to leapfrog Samsung by the end of this decade. What Intel aim to lead is the process. They plan to introduce 18A by the end of this year, followed by 14A. China will not be cut off from the global market, only at the very high end. Nvidia just recently showcase their latest chips to Chinese market. They will continue to be a main driving force along with the US.
      - j_walter 3y ago
        Intel is a competitor, but not in the same niche. Intel isn't sharing their foundry designs or 18A information with TSMC when they get chips made. AMD will never outsource to Intel...they would be basically giving the keys to the kingdom by doing so. TSMC doesn't have competitors at the chip design level...thats what makes them a perfect foundry.
        meragrin_ 3y ago
        So you think Intel's foundry business is DOA? If AMD cannot trust Intel, why would anyone else?
        j_walter 3y ago
        Basically yes, but this is the exact reason Apple got away from Samsung making their chips. TSMC is a neutral party with reasons to keep designs secret from other customers. Intel and Samsung have competing products on the market so why would you t
        signatoremo 3y ago
        > AMD will never outsource to Intel...they would be basically giving the keys to the kingdom by doing so. They will if the alternative is that they lose customers. It’s not like they have a lot of options. Also they can use Intel for less advanced chips. Intel knows full well that their chip competitors will be skeptical. That’s why they announced today that the company will be split into 2 distinct groups - Foundry and Product. Microsoft and ARM join Intel on stage at their foundry event. The chips they have Intel to make are definitely competitors to Intel’s x86 and GPU businesses. That’s what AMD will do unless they get all they want from TSMC or Samsung.
    - meragrin_ 3y ago
      What's unrealistic about AMD using Intel foundries?
nimrody 3y ago
The biggest problem Intel had was that their process was optimized for their high end processors. Everything else (within the company) suffered. For Intel to succeed as a foundry it needs customers that target the same "high end, power hungry" market segment. I don't see how Qualcomm (low power) fits that niche. More likely big AI accelerators (like, perhaps, Microsoft is planning). As long as Intel depends on its high end processors for most of its profits, it will be difficult to develop a low power process for other, less profitable, customers.
- hardware2win 3y ago
  Werent they trying to fight for this market segment with their partnerships with tower/umci?
mikewarot 3y ago
I want to be one of those customers, but it seems quite obvious to me, if you have to ask, you can't afford it. There's no conceivable future in which the minimum costs are small enough that a start-up can design a chip and get it made before running out of funding.
- 15155 3y ago
  What process node are you hoping to work at here? There's no nearly-conceivable future where the minimum costs to design a 28nm or below chip are tractable for most small companies, but even most capable individuals can design something on 130nm and afford to have that taped out today.
dragonelite 3y ago
US based chip designers. But the question i think more relevant is, are TSMC and Intel both needed if western semi conductor lose the Chinese market. Because no one has the need or the scale of China. My bet is that TSMC will go down and the talent will either go to the mainland or the US.
- candiddevmike 3y ago
  > Because no one has the need or the scale of China. Source?
  - dragonelite 3y ago
    There is no alternative to the Chinese market, maybe in 30~40 years India might approach the current Chinese market. The rest of the world is either way too small or not developed enough to fill that hole. Some sources: Harvards economic complexity US export of computers in 2021: https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore?country=undefined&queryLevel=undefined&product=1689&year=2021&productClass=HS&target=Product&partner=undefined&startYear=undefined https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore?country=undefined&quer... Chips Over Oil "Fact checked": https://www.techopedia.com/chinas-strategic-pivot-in-the-global-tech-race#:~:text=In%20addition%2C%20it%20imported%20semiconductor,%24365.51%20billion%20in%20crude%20oil https://www.techopedia.com/chinas-strategic-pivot-in-the-glo....
    - NicoJuicy 3y ago
      ? Just check average .... X.... I'm not sure if China, in decline, is worth mentioning. Eg. Average wage, GDP, ... The west is not the US alone...
      - dragonelite 3y ago
        In what way is an country growing at 5% gdp a country in decline? If we had 5% gdp growth in Europe champagne bottles would be popping. I regard US + EU + Canada + Aus + Japan + South Korea as the west about 1 billion people.
machinekob 3y ago
Probably NV and most likely Qualcomm + hyper scalers who want custom chips (Microsoft/Amazon). I can even seen Apple outsourcing some small chips in few years (big NPU outside main board or maybe 5/6G custom chips etc.)
ac29 3y ago
Currently announced Intel foundry customers include: Mediatek, Broadcom, Microsoft, and Ericsson. I'm probably missing some here, and there are almost certainly some unannounced customers.

Who will be Intel's customers? Will Intel compete with them?

throwaway4good 3y ago

Apple - hardly. AMD - no. NVDIA - maybe. Qualcomm - probably.

signatoremo 3y ago
The answer will be: All of them, plus Microsoft, Amazon, Google. TSMC and Samsung can’t meet the demand of those companies. If Intel can be TSMC’s customer then surely AMD can be Intel’s customer, so is Apple. Intel’s foundry business is structured to be separated from its processor business
- throwaway4good 3y ago
  I listed TSMC's biggest customers - and really AMD using Intel foundries? You cannot be serious. The assumption is that there is going to be a lot more demand. Even after cutting China out which is like 1/3 of global demand. The assumption is that will be driven by AI, mostly in data centers. Could be. Otherwise Intel foundry services will face an uphill battle vs. TSMC.
  - signatoremo 3y ago
    Again, Intel is a fierce competitor to TSMC, yet they are also TSMC’s customer. AMD will be the same to Intel if they can’t secure enough volume from TSMC. TSMC’s revenue is like 70 times of Intel’s foundry business. Intel only plans to leapfrog Samsung by the end of this decade. What Intel aim to lead is the process. They plan to introduce 18A by the end of this year, followed by 14A. China will not be cut off from the global market, only at the very high end. Nvidia just recently showcase their latest chips to Chinese market. They will continue to be a main driving force along with the US.
    - j_walter 3y ago
      Intel is a competitor, but not in the same niche. Intel isn't sharing their foundry designs or 18A information with TSMC when they get chips made. AMD will never outsource to Intel...they would be basically giving the keys to the kingdom by doing so. TSMC doesn't have competitors at the chip design level...thats what makes them a perfect foundry.
      - meragrin_ 3y ago
        So you think Intel's foundry business is DOA? If AMD cannot trust Intel, why would anyone else?
        j_walter 3y ago
        Basically yes, but this is the exact reason Apple got away from Samsung making their chips. TSMC is a neutral party with reasons to keep designs secret from other customers. Intel and Samsung have competing products on the market so why would you t
      - signatoremo 3y ago
        > AMD will never outsource to Intel...they would be basically giving the keys to the kingdom by doing so. They will if the alternative is that they lose customers. It’s not like they have a lot of options. Also they can use Intel for less advanced chips. Intel knows full well that their chip competitors will be skeptical. That’s why they announced today that the company will be split into 2 distinct groups - Foundry and Product. Microsoft and ARM join Intel on stage at their foundry event. The chips they have Intel to make are definitely competitors to Intel’s x86 and GPU businesses. That’s what AMD will do unless they get all they want from TSMC or Samsung.
  - meragrin_ 3y ago
    What's unrealistic about AMD using Intel foundries?

nimrody 3y ago

The biggest problem Intel had was that their process was optimized for their high end processors. Everything else (within the company) suffered. For Intel to succeed as a foundry it needs customers that target the same "high end, power hungry" market segment. I don't see how Qualcomm (low power) fits that niche. More likely big AI accelerators (like, perhaps, Microsoft is planning). As long as Intel depends on its high end processors for most of its profits, it will be difficult to develop a low power process for other, less profitable, customers.

hardware2win 3y ago
Werent they trying to fight for this market segment with their partnerships with tower/umci?

mikewarot 3y ago

I want to be one of those customers, but it seems quite obvious to me, if you have to ask, you can't afford it. There's no conceivable future in which the minimum costs are small enough that a start-up can design a chip and get it made before running out of funding.

15155 3y ago
What process node are you hoping to work at here? There's no nearly-conceivable future where the minimum costs to design a 28nm or below chip are tractable for most small companies, but even most capable individuals can design something on 130nm and afford to have that taped out today.

dragonelite 3y ago

US based chip designers. But the question i think more relevant is, are TSMC and Intel both needed if western semi conductor lose the Chinese market. Because no one has the need or the scale of China. My bet is that TSMC will go down and the talent will either go to the mainland or the US.

candiddevmike 3y ago
> Because no one has the need or the scale of China. Source?
- dragonelite 3y ago
  There is no alternative to the Chinese market, maybe in 30~40 years India might approach the current Chinese market. The rest of the world is either way too small or not developed enough to fill that hole. Some sources: Harvards economic complexity US export of computers in 2021: https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore?country=undefined&queryLevel=undefined&product=1689&year=2021&productClass=HS&target=Product&partner=undefined&startYear=undefined https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore?country=undefined&quer... Chips Over Oil "Fact checked": https://www.techopedia.com/chinas-strategic-pivot-in-the-global-tech-race#:~:text=In%20addition%2C%20it%20imported%20semiconductor,%24365.51%20billion%20in%20crude%20oil https://www.techopedia.com/chinas-strategic-pivot-in-the-glo....
  - NicoJuicy 3y ago
    ? Just check average .... X.... I'm not sure if China, in decline, is worth mentioning. Eg. Average wage, GDP, ... The west is not the US alone...
    - dragonelite 3y ago
      In what way is an country growing at 5% gdp a country in decline? If we had 5% gdp growth in Europe champagne bottles would be popping. I regard US + EU + Canada + Aus + Japan + South Korea as the west about 1 billion people.

machinekob 3y ago

Probably NV and most likely Qualcomm + hyper scalers who want custom chips (Microsoft/Amazon). I can even seen Apple outsourcing some small chips in few years (big NPU outside main board or maybe 5/6G custom chips etc.)

ac29 3y ago

Currently announced Intel foundry customers include: Mediatek, Broadcom, Microsoft, and Ericsson. I'm probably missing some here, and there are almost certainly some unannounced customers.