I agree. Think about what "too much" Heroku spend is. Think about what level of adoption/success it will take to reach that much Heroku spend. Then consider if

I agree. Think about what "too much" Heroku spend is. Think about what level of adoption/success it will take to reach that much Heroku spend. Then consider if you actually get to that level of adoption, are your Heroku costs really going to be "too much?" Don't spend more than 90 minutes on the whole exercise. My guess is that, for most apps, worrying before launch about migrating off of Heroku is a premature optimization.