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> record inflation rates Record? I guess you didn’t live through the 1970s, much less post WWI and WWII. Of course the deflation of the 1930s was even more d

by gumby 3y ago

> record inflation rates Record? I guess you didn’t live through the 1970s, much less post WWI and WWII. Of course the deflation of the 1930s was even more destructive!

justinzollars 3y ago
They changed the way we measure inflation big time since the 70s. My bills are up 40% in the last 3 years. The interesting thing is this is far from over. We will see how this ends. I'm not optimistic.
- lottin 3y ago
  So you're saying that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics should throw their statistical methodology out of the window and instead use your bills to measure inflation?
  - teitoklien 3y ago
    I doubt the main commenter, meant it that way, why is there any need to bash them ? It’s a political issue, well criticised and commented on, that governments intentionally game metrics like inflation, etc to look good on paper for incumbent presidents and heads of state. Also, the inflation rate is a very inconsistent number, different regions of the US has different rent price increases, different cost of labour increases, different product prices for a lot of goods. How can the nation be entirely ruled by one common inflation rate. All statistics like this which have to target so many regions, environments, and scenarios, always have to make decisions, that sacrifice some scenario or the other, where the “score” is a very poor indicator This applies not just to inflation, but other metrics like gdp per capita, employment rate, etc. There is no need for that condescending tone, especially when the author is talking about their increased cost of living, which prolly hurt their purchasing power.
  - zmgsabst 3y ago
    This is a nonsense reply. You’re committing a fallacy of “Appeal to Authority”, even though your comment doesn’t make sense — obviously we need a consistent measure across decades if we want to compare inflation across decades. Comparing two numbers that measure different things is an apples-to-oranges comparison. (Which is what you’re arguing we should do.) If you use a consistent measure from a 1980s basis, you’ll see that person is correct — as measured using the historic means, we’ve had ~40% inflation in the past few years and the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. This chart uses the historic measure and bases in 1980. https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
    - lottin 3y ago
      Whenever there's a change in methodology, it's common practice to retroactively recalculate the entire series so that the data are consistent. Economists aren't that dumb.
      - vineyardmike 3y ago
        Yea but news articles and anecdotes from that period in time aren’t rewritten
      - sph 3y ago
        It's not economists being dumb, it's gaming from politicians to paint a rosier picture than it is.
      - hughesjj 3y ago
        This still allows for you to choose the metric that best benefits your narrative today, which essentially every bls report has done. I still remember them removing the people who had been out of the job for xx months during the 2008 recession from the 'unemployed' category. 'oh look unemployment is down!'. '...but so is the labor participation rate...'
        lottin 3y ago
        Okay... we were talking about inflation. When and how exactly has the BLS chosen an inflation metric that suits "the narrative" of today?
  - satellite2 3y ago
    His feelings are correctly placed though. Even though macro economists agree the current methodology is the least wrong, they also agree that the BLS series cannot explain why Americans have stopped saving and gone so deeply in debt. A slight error in BLS methodology, could explain that reality. So comparing the CPI to your own reality is clearly very rational.
    - ffgjgf1 3y ago
      > Americans have stopped saving Have they? The personal savings rate is not that much lower than it was between 2000 and ~2019 on average
      - trog 3y ago
        It's pretty low, and I'm not sure average is the best measure here, but I can't find median to compare. I did see this a few weeks ago and thought it was interesting - excess saving rates are dropping sharply: https://twitter.com/saxena_puru/status/1747041218004156505 https://twitter.com/saxena_puru/status/1747041218004156505 There is another household debt graph that I can't find right now that is going up. I suspect the decline in savings rate is being buoyed somewhat by debt.
    - nindalf 3y ago
      His feelings were correctly placed. There was a vibecession last year when consumer sentiment was lower than it had been during the 2008 recession. This was in spite of low unemployment, high growth, high wage growth, low inflation and reasonable gas prices. The reason behind the low consumer sentiment wasn't a flaw in BLS methodology, no one seriously questions any of the stats I mentioned. Rather, it's that the effect of a couple of years of high inflation continued to weigh on consumers. 6 months of low inflation didn't reverse previous price increases, nor did they forget what prices used to be. And yet, it's fundamental human nature to adapt to circumstances. Consumer sentiment has actually increased substantially in the last 3 months. Source: American consumers are finally cheering up (The Economist - https://archive.is/vJ7gf https://archive.is/vJ7gf). > The rate of improvement is especially striking. The 30% increase since November marks the survey’s biggest rise over any three-month period in more than three decades. The level remains glum by historical standards: about 15% below its average in the five years before the covid-19 pandemic. In summary, the BLS' methodology to calculate economic indicators is fine. And assuming those indicators continue their trend, it's likely that consumer sentiment will continue to recover. You also claim that > Americans have stopped saving and gone so deeply in debt Except this isn't true? According to surveys conducted by the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/scf23.pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/scf23.pdf Page 30), consumer debt has gone down steadily from 2010 to 2022. At this point, I got to ask - what is your source for facts?
  - dwighttk 3y ago
    Might be better than Krugman’s “no food, shelter, energy, or used cars” number
    - gumby 3y ago
      Such a strange comment. Yes, like most macroeconomists he uses a low pass filtered number (so-called “core inflation”) to look for underlying trends but is quite aware that headline inflation (includes the high frequency fluctuations) is what actual humans see at the store. And he discussed the used car numbers — such an interesting outlier — as an indicator of supply-side shock. You can agree or disagree with his Keynesian positions but he’s pretty clear with his thinking and calls out when he was wrong. To the degree macroeconomics can be considered a science, that’s what you want from a scientist, isn’t it?
- gumby 3y ago
  Well it's a perpetual dilemma as they have to keep changing: food is now less than 10% of a family's budget while it used to be over 30% as it is in poor countries like Russia (just happened to see that figure last week). People spend money on computers which they didnt' in the 1980s, etc. > The interesting thing is this is far from over. What do you think is the cause and why it is far from over? I'm curious, not trying to start an argument
zmgsabst 3y ago
Yes — if you use a consistent measure, this latest inflation is the same rate as the late-70s/early-80s inflation. https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts In fact, 2020s inflation (using historic measure) peaked at over 15% while the 1970s spike peaked below 15% — meaning that this latest inflation sets the record compared to the 1970s. https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-inflation https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-inflation Ignorant incredulity and “back in my day!” aren’t good arguments.
- foobiekr 3y ago
  Shadowstats has admitted to just making up their data. Not exactly a compelling source. Best case they are just incompetent: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadowstats.com https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadowstats.com
  - hughesjj 3y ago
    JFC > Responding to prior criticisms made by economist James Hamilton, John Williams explained in a private phone call that Shadowstats does not actually recalculate BLS data, rather, the Shadowstats CPI merely adds a constant to the officially reported numbers.[25] >> I’m not going back and recalculating the CPI. All I’m doing is going back to the government’s estimates of what the effect would be and using that as an add factor to the reported statistics Same article says he charges $175/year/subscription since 2006. I'd love to get paid that much to do a high school level introductory programming assignment. The business logic is literally a one liner X-D
- ffgjgf1 3y ago
  Inflation was consistently very high in the 70s while time time it peaked in 2022 and then went down relatively rapidly. Of course it might rebound but until that happens it’s hardly comparable.
- AnimalMuppet 3y ago
  You don't slavishly believe the government inflation data? That's fine; nothing wrong with that. But don't slavishly believe Shadowstat's inflation number either.
oldpersonintx 3y ago
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by gumby 3y ago

> record inflation rates Record? I guess you didn’t live through the 1970s, much less post WWI and WWII. Of course the deflation of the 1930s was even more destructive!

justinzollars 3y ago

They changed the way we measure inflation big time since the 70s. My bills are up 40% in the last 3 years. The interesting thing is this is far from over. We will see how this ends. I'm not optimistic.

lottin 3y ago
So you're saying that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics should throw their statistical methodology out of the window and instead use your bills to measure inflation?
- teitoklien 3y ago
  I doubt the main commenter, meant it that way, why is there any need to bash them ? It’s a political issue, well criticised and commented on, that governments intentionally game metrics like inflation, etc to look good on paper for incumbent presidents and heads of state. Also, the inflation rate is a very inconsistent number, different regions of the US has different rent price increases, different cost of labour increases, different product prices for a lot of goods. How can the nation be entirely ruled by one common inflation rate. All statistics like this which have to target so many regions, environments, and scenarios, always have to make decisions, that sacrifice some scenario or the other, where the “score” is a very poor indicator This applies not just to inflation, but other metrics like gdp per capita, employment rate, etc. There is no need for that condescending tone, especially when the author is talking about their increased cost of living, which prolly hurt their purchasing power.
- zmgsabst 3y ago
  This is a nonsense reply. You’re committing a fallacy of “Appeal to Authority”, even though your comment doesn’t make sense — obviously we need a consistent measure across decades if we want to compare inflation across decades. Comparing two numbers that measure different things is an apples-to-oranges comparison. (Which is what you’re arguing we should do.) If you use a consistent measure from a 1980s basis, you’ll see that person is correct — as measured using the historic means, we’ve had ~40% inflation in the past few years and the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. This chart uses the historic measure and bases in 1980. https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
  - lottin 3y ago
    Whenever there's a change in methodology, it's common practice to retroactively recalculate the entire series so that the data are consistent. Economists aren't that dumb.
    - vineyardmike 3y ago
      Yea but news articles and anecdotes from that period in time aren’t rewritten
    - sph 3y ago
      It's not economists being dumb, it's gaming from politicians to paint a rosier picture than it is.
    - hughesjj 3y ago
      This still allows for you to choose the metric that best benefits your narrative today, which essentially every bls report has done. I still remember them removing the people who had been out of the job for xx months during the 2008 recession from the 'unemployed' category. 'oh look unemployment is down!'. '...but so is the labor participation rate...'
      - lottin 3y ago
        Okay... we were talking about inflation. When and how exactly has the BLS chosen an inflation metric that suits "the narrative" of today?
- satellite2 3y ago
  His feelings are correctly placed though. Even though macro economists agree the current methodology is the least wrong, they also agree that the BLS series cannot explain why Americans have stopped saving and gone so deeply in debt. A slight error in BLS methodology, could explain that reality. So comparing the CPI to your own reality is clearly very rational.
  - ffgjgf1 3y ago
    > Americans have stopped saving Have they? The personal savings rate is not that much lower than it was between 2000 and ~2019 on average
    - trog 3y ago
      It's pretty low, and I'm not sure average is the best measure here, but I can't find median to compare. I did see this a few weeks ago and thought it was interesting - excess saving rates are dropping sharply: https://twitter.com/saxena_puru/status/1747041218004156505 https://twitter.com/saxena_puru/status/1747041218004156505 There is another household debt graph that I can't find right now that is going up. I suspect the decline in savings rate is being buoyed somewhat by debt.
  - nindalf 3y ago
    His feelings were correctly placed. There was a vibecession last year when consumer sentiment was lower than it had been during the 2008 recession. This was in spite of low unemployment, high growth, high wage growth, low inflation and reasonable gas prices. The reason behind the low consumer sentiment wasn't a flaw in BLS methodology, no one seriously questions any of the stats I mentioned. Rather, it's that the effect of a couple of years of high inflation continued to weigh on consumers. 6 months of low inflation didn't reverse previous price increases, nor did they forget what prices used to be. And yet, it's fundamental human nature to adapt to circumstances. Consumer sentiment has actually increased substantially in the last 3 months. Source: American consumers are finally cheering up (The Economist - https://archive.is/vJ7gf https://archive.is/vJ7gf). > The rate of improvement is especially striking. The 30% increase since November marks the survey’s biggest rise over any three-month period in more than three decades. The level remains glum by historical standards: about 15% below its average in the five years before the covid-19 pandemic. In summary, the BLS' methodology to calculate economic indicators is fine. And assuming those indicators continue their trend, it's likely that consumer sentiment will continue to recover. You also claim that > Americans have stopped saving and gone so deeply in debt Except this isn't true? According to surveys conducted by the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/scf23.pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/scf23.pdf Page 30), consumer debt has gone down steadily from 2010 to 2022. At this point, I got to ask - what is your source for facts?
- dwighttk 3y ago
  Might be better than Krugman’s “no food, shelter, energy, or used cars” number
  - gumby 3y ago
    Such a strange comment. Yes, like most macroeconomists he uses a low pass filtered number (so-called “core inflation”) to look for underlying trends but is quite aware that headline inflation (includes the high frequency fluctuations) is what actual humans see at the store. And he discussed the used car numbers — such an interesting outlier — as an indicator of supply-side shock. You can agree or disagree with his Keynesian positions but he’s pretty clear with his thinking and calls out when he was wrong. To the degree macroeconomics can be considered a science, that’s what you want from a scientist, isn’t it?
gumby 3y ago
Well it's a perpetual dilemma as they have to keep changing: food is now less than 10% of a family's budget while it used to be over 30% as it is in poor countries like Russia (just happened to see that figure last week). People spend money on computers which they didnt' in the 1980s, etc. > The interesting thing is this is far from over. What do you think is the cause and why it is far from over? I'm curious, not trying to start an argument

zmgsabst 3y ago

Yes — if you use a consistent measure, this latest inflation is the same rate as the late-70s/early-80s inflation. https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts In fact, 2020s inflation (using historic measure) peaked at over 15% while the 1970s spike peaked below 15% — meaning that this latest inflation sets the record compared to the 1970s. https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-inflation https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-inflation Ignorant incredulity and “back in my day!” aren’t good arguments.

foobiekr 3y ago
Shadowstats has admitted to just making up their data. Not exactly a compelling source. Best case they are just incompetent: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadowstats.com https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadowstats.com
- hughesjj 3y ago
  JFC > Responding to prior criticisms made by economist James Hamilton, John Williams explained in a private phone call that Shadowstats does not actually recalculate BLS data, rather, the Shadowstats CPI merely adds a constant to the officially reported numbers.[25] >> I’m not going back and recalculating the CPI. All I’m doing is going back to the government’s estimates of what the effect would be and using that as an add factor to the reported statistics Same article says he charges $175/year/subscription since 2006. I'd love to get paid that much to do a high school level introductory programming assignment. The business logic is literally a one liner X-D
ffgjgf1 3y ago
Inflation was consistently very high in the 70s while time time it peaked in 2022 and then went down relatively rapidly. Of course it might rebound but until that happens it’s hardly comparable.
AnimalMuppet 3y ago
You don't slavishly believe the government inflation data? That's fine; nothing wrong with that. But don't slavishly believe Shadowstat's inflation number either.

oldpersonintx 3y ago

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