> If your adversary knows your capabilities, even vague details, they can usually extrapolate the specifics close enough to defeat them, physics is like that.

> If your adversary knows your capabilities, even vague details, they can usually extrapolate the specifics close enough to defeat them, physics is like that. This is not generally true. Further, the existence of satellites can't be readily hidden, anyone with a telescope can see that they are up there. > Also if you know your adversary has a capability you’re very likely to try to replicate it. It's not a problem if other nations replicate this capability. Indeed it would likely be good for the US if they did - the more confident a country is in their defenses the less they need to rely on pre-emptive offense. It's also worth noting that the US generally lags behind in hypersonic weapons as they're not really useful to US strategy, so adversaries pursuing anti-hypersonic capabilities would really just be wasting resources. > Like this announcement is probably a response to the public discourse by the US of Russian antisatellite space nukes which they are developing and denying. Definitely not. For starters this program has been in the works for years, and the launch was scheduled months ago. Further, it seems a little silly to advertise that you're pouring resources into satellites right after disclosing that your adversary is working on a weapon to destroy satellites. > The adversary not knowing at all what you have and having to imagine your capabilities can be a bigger deterrent. If you are confident they will overestimate your capabilities. > It could be a negotiation tactic (we’ll not develop this if you don’t develop that), a threat (we’ll develop this faster if you don’t stop), or internal politics (we’re doing stuff that will be potent against Russia too) or many other things. Or it could be a routine announcement as is typical for missile defense systems. Sure there could be some ulterior motive, but there is absolutely no reason to believe that to be the case.