> All of this can be modeled out in Excel. No one does it anymore but I am from a time when it was common, so I have that skill in my back pocket. It isn’t near

> All of this can be modeled out in Excel. No one does it anymore but I am from a time when it was common, so I have that skill in my back pocket. It isn’t nearly as much work as it sounds like, much of the details are formulaic. You do need to have good data on how your workload uses hardware resources to know what to build. And this is one of the big "screts" AWS success: Shifting a lot of resource allocation and power from people with budgeting responsibility to developers who have usually never seen the budget or accounts, don't keep track, and at most retrospectively gets pulled in to explain line items in expenses, and obscuring it (to the point where I know people who've spent 6 figure amounts worth of dev time building analytics to figure out where their cloud spend goes... tooling has gotten better but is still awful) I believe a whole lot of tech stacks would look very different if developers and architects were more directly involved in budgeting, and bonuses etc. were linked at least in part to financial outcomes affected by their technical choices. A whole lot of claims to low cloud costs come from people who have never done actual comparisons and who seem to have a pathological fear of hardware, even when for most people you don't need to ever touch a physical box yourself - you can get maybe 2/3's of the savings with managed hosting as well. You don't get the super-customized server builds, but you do get far more choice than with cloud providers, and you can often make up for the lack of fine-grained control by being able to rent/lease them somewhere where the physical hosting is cheaper (e.g. at a previous employer what finally made us switch to Hetzner for most new capacity was that while we didn't get exactly the hardware we wanted, we got "close enough" coupled with data centre space in their locations in Germany being far below data centre space in London - it didn't make them much cheaper, but it did make them sufficiently cheaper to outweigh the hardware differences with a margin sufficient for us to deploy new stuff there but still keep some of our colo footprint)