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A 7-digit colony is a very distant thing, despite of Musk's nutty ideas. Guy can barely get his car things or his HLS things right, not sure why people trust hi

by fmobus 3y ago

A 7-digit colony is a very distant thing, despite of Musk's nutty ideas. Guy can barely get his car things or his HLS things right, not sure why people trust him to lead on Mars colonization. His plans are not serious. At current levels of technology and investment, colonization won't happen in our lifetimes. I'd wager we'll get, at best, a few very very dangerous and expensive crewed missions and some very basic infrastructure.

inglor_cz 3y ago
"not sure why people trust him to lead on Mars colonization" Uh, because SpaceX is a serious success? The last year, they launched 10 times as much payload into space than China.
- kelnos 3y ago
  Not to minimize what SpaceX has done, but building reusable, reliable, relatively-inexpensive rockets is a far cry from building a sustainable colony on another planet. Musk may be able to eventually manage the latter, but I don't think success at the former is a reliable indicator of that.
  - inglor_cz 3y ago
    Reliable would be a strong word, but SpaceX has certainly demonstrated its ability to innovate and reduce expenses at the same time, which is a necessary condition to even entertain the idea of interplanetary flights. They also seem to be fairly concentrated on development of new vehicles and don't distract themselves with anything else.
  - ben_w 3y ago
    I also don't expect Musk to be able to build a sustainable colony on another planet, what I do expect is for him to be able to build the transport infrastructure that enables someone else to be able to build it[0]. And even then, most likely with a layer of indirection that puts Starship in the role of space truck which enables the infrastructure be built, but which isn't the main mode of transport itself: To really make a Mars colony viable, I think both Earth and Mars (for different reasons) would probably want a non-rocket launch system such as an orbital ring, which Starship could help build. [0] assuming the von Neumann replicators don't eat us all first. He is literally building a bunch of general purpose humanoid robots and suggesting they may take on factory roles… and Tesla/Optimus isn't the only such robot under development.
protocolture 3y ago
Musk is the MVP MVP Minimum Viable Product Most Valued Player. All of his projects have stalled at a middle ground where they are profitable. Boring Company is actually just Boring. No Hyperloops. Tesla isnt producing enough cars to really lower the barrier to entry for electrics. Makes a desirable luxury car tho. Space X has nailed the orbital supply industry, but its space exploration days are still far in the future. Starlink is an amazing tool for rural areas but has very predictable congestion issues when pointed at urban areas. Planned upgrades will reduce the networks redundancy as he slots in larger middle man nodes. Even then, theres only so much you can do. Before a musk fanboy comes in here and says he is a futurist a lot of his hard firm dates were years that sounded like "2017".
- snovv_crash 3y ago
  That sounds like some serious "aim for the stars and you'll only hit the moon" kind of problem. Every major auto manufacturer is scrambling to build an EV because Tesla left them sitting without any potential market in 5-10 years if they don't. Tesla's goal, stated clearly from the beginning, was to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles. In this it has definitely succeeded. Yeah, it hasn't moved downmarket as quickly as people hoped. But as long as the more expensive models are being sold faster than produced, that's a capitalism problem not a Tesla problem. SpaceX launches more commercial payloads than every other launch provider combined. They are investing heavily in next-gen launch capability despite being blocked by lots of red tape for environmental issues tha, a few miles away over the border, nobody cares about. Starlink - what exactly did you expect here? It was never going to compete with urban FTTH. Boring company - yeah not sure what you expected either. IMO this is more about having something that can build habitats on Mars. Hyperloop works on Mars without active vacuum systems or airtight sealing. And no I'm not a fanboy. I think he's very anti-labour for example, which isn't the way to build a stable society. But from a tech standpoint I don't think these are valid criticisms.
  - sparrowInHand 3y ago
    Yes you are. And the problem with musk, is that we have one guy. We could have, with a normal, not oligarchy concentrated enconomy, several Elons in competition. What he does, used to be the normal thing, if you were enterprising.

by fmobus 3y ago

inglor_cz 3y ago

"not sure why people trust him to lead on Mars colonization" Uh, because SpaceX is a serious success? The last year, they launched 10 times as much payload into space than China.

kelnos 3y ago
Not to minimize what SpaceX has done, but building reusable, reliable, relatively-inexpensive rockets is a far cry from building a sustainable colony on another planet. Musk may be able to eventually manage the latter, but I don't think success at the former is a reliable indicator of that.
- inglor_cz 3y ago
  Reliable would be a strong word, but SpaceX has certainly demonstrated its ability to innovate and reduce expenses at the same time, which is a necessary condition to even entertain the idea of interplanetary flights. They also seem to be fairly concentrated on development of new vehicles and don't distract themselves with anything else.
- ben_w 3y ago
  I also don't expect Musk to be able to build a sustainable colony on another planet, what I do expect is for him to be able to build the transport infrastructure that enables someone else to be able to build it[0]. And even then, most likely with a layer of indirection that puts Starship in the role of space truck which enables the infrastructure be built, but which isn't the main mode of transport itself: To really make a Mars colony viable, I think both Earth and Mars (for different reasons) would probably want a non-rocket launch system such as an orbital ring, which Starship could help build. [0] assuming the von Neumann replicators don't eat us all first. He is literally building a bunch of general purpose humanoid robots and suggesting they may take on factory roles… and Tesla/Optimus isn't the only such robot under development.

protocolture 3y ago

Musk is the MVP MVP Minimum Viable Product Most Valued Player. All of his projects have stalled at a middle ground where they are profitable. Boring Company is actually just Boring. No Hyperloops. Tesla isnt producing enough cars to really lower the barrier to entry for electrics. Makes a desirable luxury car tho. Space X has nailed the orbital supply industry, but its space exploration days are still far in the future. Starlink is an amazing tool for rural areas but has very predictable congestion issues when pointed at urban areas. Planned upgrades will reduce the networks redundancy as he slots in larger middle man nodes. Even then, theres only so much you can do. Before a musk fanboy comes in here and says he is a futurist a lot of his hard firm dates were years that sounded like "2017".

snovv_crash 3y ago
That sounds like some serious "aim for the stars and you'll only hit the moon" kind of problem. Every major auto manufacturer is scrambling to build an EV because Tesla left them sitting without any potential market in 5-10 years if they don't. Tesla's goal, stated clearly from the beginning, was to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles. In this it has definitely succeeded. Yeah, it hasn't moved downmarket as quickly as people hoped. But as long as the more expensive models are being sold faster than produced, that's a capitalism problem not a Tesla problem. SpaceX launches more commercial payloads than every other launch provider combined. They are investing heavily in next-gen launch capability despite being blocked by lots of red tape for environmental issues tha, a few miles away over the border, nobody cares about. Starlink - what exactly did you expect here? It was never going to compete with urban FTTH. Boring company - yeah not sure what you expected either. IMO this is more about having something that can build habitats on Mars. Hyperloop works on Mars without active vacuum systems or airtight sealing. And no I'm not a fanboy. I think he's very anti-labour for example, which isn't the way to build a stable society. But from a tech standpoint I don't think these are valid criticisms.
- sparrowInHand 3y ago
  Yes you are. And the problem with musk, is that we have one guy. We could have, with a normal, not oligarchy concentrated enconomy, several Elons in competition. What he does, used to be the normal thing, if you were enterprising.