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What’s missing from your calculation is the current Mars plans from SpaceX or others. They plan on building a colony of millions of people. In order to do that,

What’s missing from your calculation is the current Mars plans from SpaceX or others. They plan on building a colony of millions of people. In order to do that, costs must be dramatically lower and return trips must be possible. So all the current Mars-capable rockets are being developed with the idea that there will be return trips every synod. Maybe those ideas will fail. But there are billions of dollars going toward this goal today, and more in the future. So I would bet very much that a return trip is likely within a decade.

Fred34 3y ago
Within the decade? I wish I was that optimistic. There are only so many windows in the next decade where it's economical to send/receive rockets to mars. The planets have to literally align for it can be economical to send/receive people. https://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/close-and-far-martian-oppositions/ https://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/close-and-far-mart...
- ben_w 3y ago
  I'd say 50/50 on the launch (but not landing on Mars let alone returning to Earth) of a manned Mars mission this decade; Musk is famously over-optimistic, but his companies do tend to actually arrive at the destination.
  - Fred34 3y ago
    Yea that sounds about right.
eru 3y ago
Things always take longer than expected. So I would bet that a return trip is possible within 50 years, but won't actually be done within 10 years from now.
fmobus 3y ago
A 7-digit colony is a very distant thing, despite of Musk's nutty ideas. Guy can barely get his car things or his HLS things right, not sure why people trust him to lead on Mars colonization. His plans are not serious. At current levels of technology and investment, colonization won't happen in our lifetimes. I'd wager we'll get, at best, a few very very dangerous and expensive crewed missions and some very basic infrastructure.
- inglor_cz 3y ago
  "not sure why people trust him to lead on Mars colonization" Uh, because SpaceX is a serious success? The last year, they launched 10 times as much payload into space than China.
  - kelnos 3y ago
    Not to minimize what SpaceX has done, but building reusable, reliable, relatively-inexpensive rockets is a far cry from building a sustainable colony on another planet. Musk may be able to eventually manage the latter, but I don't think success at the former is a reliable indicator of that.
    - inglor_cz 3y ago
      Reliable would be a strong word, but SpaceX has certainly demonstrated its ability to innovate and reduce expenses at the same time, which is a necessary condition to even entertain the idea of interplanetary flights. They also seem to be fairly concentrated on development of new vehicles and don't distract themselves with anything else.
    - ben_w 3y ago
      I also don't expect Musk to be able to build a sustainable colony on another planet, what I do expect is for him to be able to build the transport infrastructure that enables someone else to be able to build it[0]. And even then, most likely with a layer of indirection that puts Starship in the role of space truck which enables the infrastructure be built, but which isn't the main mode of transport itself: To really make a Mars colony viable, I think both Earth and Mars (for different reasons) would probably want a non-rocket launch system such as an orbital ring, which Starship could help build. [0] assuming the von Neumann replicators don't eat us all first. He is literally building a bunch of general purpose humanoid robots and suggesting they may take on factory roles… and Tesla/Optimus isn't the only such robot under development.
runlaszlorun 3y ago
Call me a cynic but I have zero trust for a man who becomes the wealthiest on the planet and, rather than have a little gratitude and actual try to give back, is then consumed by getting the f out of here before the crowd with pitchforks arrive. And, no, personally I don’t think Tesla or SpaceX count as giving back. Why can’t our billionaires at least just slink off to the lovely beaches of some island somewhere. Oh wait, egos… But Mars? Mars? How does that sound enjoyable? I actually hope he makes it there. And millions of people? I’m no expert but are there even anywhere near enough launch windows for that? And I’m guessing even just figuring out the cost of the fuel to reach escape velocity would show how this a non-starter for more than Musk himself and a few companions.
- krisoft 3y ago
  > I have zero trust for a man who becomes the wealthiest on the planet and, rather than have a little gratitude and actual try to give back, is then consumed by getting the f out of here But that is not actually the order things happened. He was talking about mars colonies before he become the wealthiest on the planet. > Mars? Mars? How does that sound enjoyable? Nobody said they want to do it because it is enjoyable. Where are you getting this? > millions of people? I’m no expert but are there even anywhere near enough launch windows for that? In what way do you think the number of launch windows constrain the number of colonist? > I’m guessing even just figuring out the cost of the fuel to reach escape velocity would show how this a non-starter You are guessing? :)
- mulmen 3y ago
  > And, no, personally I don’t think Tesla or SpaceX count as giving back. Yeah, well, that’s just, like, your opinion, man. Say what you will about the tenets of Muskianism but at least it’s an ethos. > Why can’t our billionaires at least just slink off to the lovely beaches of some island somewhere. Oh wait, egos… One person’s egotism is another’s genuine belief. I’m personally not surprised someone who had the ambition and luck to be a billionaire would continue doing things they believe in. I’m not even convinced it would be beneficial for them to disappear. What happens to the immense amount of capital they control? > But Mars? Mars? How does that sound enjoyable? I actually hope he makes it there. Does he actually want to go to Mars personally? I thought the idea was that he wants humanity to be multi-planetary.
ffgjgf1 3y ago
> They plan on building a colony of millions of people Right. Sounds cool, maybe they could commission someone to make a scifi tv show but that’s about it. Why would you want millions of people on Mars? What purpose that would achieve? There is no way this colony could be self sustainable… (also good luck raising the inconceivable high amount of money required to get them there in the first place) It would literally be the most wasteful and poi thing humans have accomplished (on purpose at least) ever.
- ben_w 3y ago
  "Why?" is given as a backup against a global catastrophe on earth. Myself I doubt this, there's very few which would affect all of and only Earth. Gamma ray burst? Also Mars. Paperclip optimiser? Probably also Mars. Pandemic? If you're moving stuff between planets, probably also Mars. Nuclear war and climate change combined won't leave this planet anything like as uninhabitable as Mars, though of course the converse is that the capacity to colonise Mars means the middle of the Sahara, the middle of Antarctica, all superfund cleanup sites, and the top of Mount Everest, all become easy to turn into friendly and pleasant cities you'd be happy to live in.
  - detourdog 3y ago
    I hear this and understand the human need to think this is logical. I don't see this as a reasonably back-up plan. The chances of a catastrophe on Mars is even greater considering the environment is not fit for humans. The amount of ingenuity and co-operation needed to go to Mars may be greater than the amount needed to maintain Earth. I don't see on Mars is safer than just an orbiting space station. Needing to go to Mars or anywhere other than Earth adds complexity to the issue.
    - ben_w 3y ago
      Getting a million people to Mars, assuming Musk's price optimism is accurate, is somewhere around 10% of the upgrade costs Earth's electricity grids already need, or about half the material (not land, not planning, not political) cost of building a new circumglobal 1Ω TW-scale power grid from aluminium. I would (if I had a say in the matter) go for the Moon over Mars or an orbital space station. An orbital space station (or collection of them) for a million people would be very hard, because we don't have a convenient small asteroid to mine for building materials and therefore can't ISRU. I'd pick the Moon because it's close enough that when the inevitable black swan catastrophe happens, it's only a few days travel so we'd have a chance of saving almost everyone's lives if all the water or food was lost to depressurisation/the outside environment/surprise mould. Mars, to rephrase what I wrote before, is less hospitable than all the worst environmental disasters we can experience on Earth, even if those disasters were combined. Being able to colonise it means we can fix basically anything that goes wrong here.

Fred34 3y ago

Within the decade? I wish I was that optimistic. There are only so many windows in the next decade where it's economical to send/receive rockets to mars. The planets have to literally align for it can be economical to send/receive people. https://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/close-and-far-martian-oppositions/ https://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/close-and-far-mart...

ben_w 3y ago
I'd say 50/50 on the launch (but not landing on Mars let alone returning to Earth) of a manned Mars mission this decade; Musk is famously over-optimistic, but his companies do tend to actually arrive at the destination.
- Fred34 3y ago
  Yea that sounds about right.

eru 3y ago

Things always take longer than expected. So I would bet that a return trip is possible within 50 years, but won't actually be done within 10 years from now.

fmobus 3y ago

A 7-digit colony is a very distant thing, despite of Musk's nutty ideas. Guy can barely get his car things or his HLS things right, not sure why people trust him to lead on Mars colonization. His plans are not serious. At current levels of technology and investment, colonization won't happen in our lifetimes. I'd wager we'll get, at best, a few very very dangerous and expensive crewed missions and some very basic infrastructure.

inglor_cz 3y ago
"not sure why people trust him to lead on Mars colonization" Uh, because SpaceX is a serious success? The last year, they launched 10 times as much payload into space than China.
- kelnos 3y ago
  Not to minimize what SpaceX has done, but building reusable, reliable, relatively-inexpensive rockets is a far cry from building a sustainable colony on another planet. Musk may be able to eventually manage the latter, but I don't think success at the former is a reliable indicator of that.
  - inglor_cz 3y ago
    Reliable would be a strong word, but SpaceX has certainly demonstrated its ability to innovate and reduce expenses at the same time, which is a necessary condition to even entertain the idea of interplanetary flights. They also seem to be fairly concentrated on development of new vehicles and don't distract themselves with anything else.
  - ben_w 3y ago
    I also don't expect Musk to be able to build a sustainable colony on another planet, what I do expect is for him to be able to build the transport infrastructure that enables someone else to be able to build it[0]. And even then, most likely with a layer of indirection that puts Starship in the role of space truck which enables the infrastructure be built, but which isn't the main mode of transport itself: To really make a Mars colony viable, I think both Earth and Mars (for different reasons) would probably want a non-rocket launch system such as an orbital ring, which Starship could help build. [0] assuming the von Neumann replicators don't eat us all first. He is literally building a bunch of general purpose humanoid robots and suggesting they may take on factory roles… and Tesla/Optimus isn't the only such robot under development.

runlaszlorun 3y ago

Call me a cynic but I have zero trust for a man who becomes the wealthiest on the planet and, rather than have a little gratitude and actual try to give back, is then consumed by getting the f out of here before the crowd with pitchforks arrive. And, no, personally I don’t think Tesla or SpaceX count as giving back. Why can’t our billionaires at least just slink off to the lovely beaches of some island somewhere. Oh wait, egos… But Mars? Mars? How does that sound enjoyable? I actually hope he makes it there. And millions of people? I’m no expert but are there even anywhere near enough launch windows for that? And I’m guessing even just figuring out the cost of the fuel to reach escape velocity would show how this a non-starter for more than Musk himself and a few companions.

krisoft 3y ago
> I have zero trust for a man who becomes the wealthiest on the planet and, rather than have a little gratitude and actual try to give back, is then consumed by getting the f out of here But that is not actually the order things happened. He was talking about mars colonies before he become the wealthiest on the planet. > Mars? Mars? How does that sound enjoyable? Nobody said they want to do it because it is enjoyable. Where are you getting this? > millions of people? I’m no expert but are there even anywhere near enough launch windows for that? In what way do you think the number of launch windows constrain the number of colonist? > I’m guessing even just figuring out the cost of the fuel to reach escape velocity would show how this a non-starter You are guessing? :)
mulmen 3y ago
> And, no, personally I don’t think Tesla or SpaceX count as giving back. Yeah, well, that’s just, like, your opinion, man. Say what you will about the tenets of Muskianism but at least it’s an ethos. > Why can’t our billionaires at least just slink off to the lovely beaches of some island somewhere. Oh wait, egos… One person’s egotism is another’s genuine belief. I’m personally not surprised someone who had the ambition and luck to be a billionaire would continue doing things they believe in. I’m not even convinced it would be beneficial for them to disappear. What happens to the immense amount of capital they control? > But Mars? Mars? How does that sound enjoyable? I actually hope he makes it there. Does he actually want to go to Mars personally? I thought the idea was that he wants humanity to be multi-planetary.

ffgjgf1 3y ago

> They plan on building a colony of millions of people Right. Sounds cool, maybe they could commission someone to make a scifi tv show but that’s about it. Why would you want millions of people on Mars? What purpose that would achieve? There is no way this colony could be self sustainable… (also good luck raising the inconceivable high amount of money required to get them there in the first place) It would literally be the most wasteful and poi thing humans have accomplished (on purpose at least) ever.

ben_w 3y ago
"Why?" is given as a backup against a global catastrophe on earth. Myself I doubt this, there's very few which would affect all of and only Earth. Gamma ray burst? Also Mars. Paperclip optimiser? Probably also Mars. Pandemic? If you're moving stuff between planets, probably also Mars. Nuclear war and climate change combined won't leave this planet anything like as uninhabitable as Mars, though of course the converse is that the capacity to colonise Mars means the middle of the Sahara, the middle of Antarctica, all superfund cleanup sites, and the top of Mount Everest, all become easy to turn into friendly and pleasant cities you'd be happy to live in.
- detourdog 3y ago
  I hear this and understand the human need to think this is logical. I don't see this as a reasonably back-up plan. The chances of a catastrophe on Mars is even greater considering the environment is not fit for humans. The amount of ingenuity and co-operation needed to go to Mars may be greater than the amount needed to maintain Earth. I don't see on Mars is safer than just an orbiting space station. Needing to go to Mars or anywhere other than Earth adds complexity to the issue.
  - ben_w 3y ago
    Getting a million people to Mars, assuming Musk's price optimism is accurate, is somewhere around 10% of the upgrade costs Earth's electricity grids already need, or about half the material (not land, not planning, not political) cost of building a new circumglobal 1Ω TW-scale power grid from aluminium. I would (if I had a say in the matter) go for the Moon over Mars or an orbital space station. An orbital space station (or collection of them) for a million people would be very hard, because we don't have a convenient small asteroid to mine for building materials and therefore can't ISRU. I'd pick the Moon because it's close enough that when the inevitable black swan catastrophe happens, it's only a few days travel so we'd have a chance of saving almost everyone's lives if all the water or food was lost to depressurisation/the outside environment/surprise mould. Mars, to rephrase what I wrote before, is less hospitable than all the worst environmental disasters we can experience on Earth, even if those disasters were combined. Being able to colonise it means we can fix basically anything that goes wrong here.