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I am not seeing it. Either I am blind or we are seeing two different things? China sky-rocketed since the pandemic. They had a rough lock-down but there is some

by csomar 3y ago

I am not seeing it. Either I am blind or we are seeing two different things? China sky-rocketed since the pandemic. They had a rough lock-down but there is something strange brewing there: Their tech/quality sector is releasing stuff at record speed (cars, phones, chips, etc..), their exports have boomed and even in this recent downturn seems to have stabilized, their "green" transition is happening at an unbelievable speed (look for China solar installation for last year), they continue to pump highways, HS rail, metros, airports at mind-boggling quantities, etc... I am afraid the train left the station, or more like the rocket has launched already. I don't think the sanctions are going to make that big of an effect and if anything, they might come to bite the US back than anything else.

oezi 3y ago
The infrastructure spending is indeed mind boggling, but I have the feeling similar to their real estate glut that they are building too low quality and are making a grave mistake in this because they will be stuck with this infrastructure for the next decades (comparable with how the US is stuck with its aging airports, highways and congress centers).
- csomar 3y ago
  The public infrastructure (especially the newer one) is actually quite decent even by Western standards. The private buildings are not, at least the old ones (actually they are quite bad). The Chinese government recently banned high-rises because of this. Many of these buildings are now a liability to the public.
karlgkk 3y ago
The sanctions are making a huge impact - chip making is more complex than almost any other current industry. I don't think sanctions will stop them from achieving their goal, but it will push them back from their goal of independence by about a decade. Who knows if it comes back to bite the US. If I were China, I'd remember how the US treated them. I don't know.

by csomar 3y ago

oezi 3y ago

The infrastructure spending is indeed mind boggling, but I have the feeling similar to their real estate glut that they are building too low quality and are making a grave mistake in this because they will be stuck with this infrastructure for the next decades (comparable with how the US is stuck with its aging airports, highways and congress centers).

csomar 3y ago
The public infrastructure (especially the newer one) is actually quite decent even by Western standards. The private buildings are not, at least the old ones (actually they are quite bad). The Chinese government recently banned high-rises because of this. Many of these buildings are now a liability to the public.

karlgkk 3y ago

The sanctions are making a huge impact - chip making is more complex than almost any other current industry. I don't think sanctions will stop them from achieving their goal, but it will push them back from their goal of independence by about a decade. Who knows if it comes back to bite the US. If I were China, I'd remember how the US treated them. I don't know.