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I didn't have an impression you're defending russia, I was just making cold arguments. As per your latest argument: I'm not an economist, but isn't it the case

I didn't have an impression you're defending russia, I was just making cold arguments. As per your latest argument: I'm not an economist, but isn't it the case that "war boosts economy" because military spending counts towards GDP? Isn't it a broken window fallacy? I'd think everyone by now understands war is terrible for economy long-term, unless the spoils of war are worth it. There's also a matter of "creative accounting" typical for immoral regimes. Could you explain to me just *how* would russian economy thrive despite hundreds of thousands of people dying, contracts cancelled, resources being sold for less to China and India and with a mass emigration of intellectual workforce outside of the country? Some things come to mind: - prisoners sent to war dying and therefore less upkeep costs for prisons - people willing to pay higher taxes for war efforts, be paid less, pay higher prices for products... In general the war justifying exploitation of people. In first case, I'm skeptical this could grant significant savings, as well as I wonder: if it was beneficial, why wouldn't a member of the empire of evil not just kill the prisoners en masse - and if the answer is that it would cause a civil unrest, then maybe we're going to see such anyway - which will yet cause some damage in future. In second case I wonder: is hardship good for your society? "Hard times create strong men", but on the other hand easy times generate sensitive men; it's hard to be an intellectual if you struggle to satisfy the bottom of Maslow's triangle. And as I already mentioned: some people simply escape to a country that grants them a higher standard of life.

misja111 3y ago
Just so we're on the same page: the article I linked is from the Financial Times, and it's quoting a report from the IMF. There is no creative accounting here. For sure there could be creative accounting when the Russian government publishes figures, and indeed those figures are even higher than the ones mentioned by the IMF. About your other points: I'm not sure why you're mentioning them if you already knew that I'm not defending Russia. I'm against their war, against their government and against how they are treating people, including their own. On the other hand, this is no excuse to close your eyes to reality. The EU sanctions that were supposed to hurt the Russian economy, ideally by so much that support for the war would stop, don't have the desired effect. In fact they might even have boosted the Russian economy at some point, and also they are driving Russia into the arms of China.
- Etherlord87 3y ago
  > I'm not sure why you're mentioning them if you already knew that I'm not defending Russia. Because an argument is correct or incorrect regardless who makes it. > On the other hand, this is no excuse to close your eyes to reality... For example the reality of USD to RUB exchange rate, that went down after annexation of Crimea, and went further down after February 2022. > ...The EU sanctions that were supposed to hurt the Russian economy,.. And did. > ...ideally by so much that support for the war would stop,... Failed here. We need more sanctions, especially as with time russia learns to circumvent them. > ...don't have the desired effect... They don't have the desired, as you put it, ideal effect. There is some clear effect however. > ...In fact they might even have boosted the Russian economy at some point,... The sanctions like stopping the flights were devastating, so I can't be sure, but I can agree due to the "might" word being used. I'm very open-minded that in the short term such boost may have happened, and I argue how in some ways it's to be expected. > ...and also they are driving Russia into the arms of China. The power of China is hugely overestimated by an average Joe. Probably due to Chinese propaganda, people think we (the west) rely on China more than the China relies on us. Which is very far from true. Strengthening China by vassalization of russia is bad, but if russia is forced to become a vassal, it only proves the sanctions do work and hurt it.

misja111 3y ago

Just so we're on the same page: the article I linked is from the Financial Times, and it's quoting a report from the IMF. There is no creative accounting here. For sure there could be creative accounting when the Russian government publishes figures, and indeed those figures are even higher than the ones mentioned by the IMF. About your other points: I'm not sure why you're mentioning them if you already knew that I'm not defending Russia. I'm against their war, against their government and against how they are treating people, including their own. On the other hand, this is no excuse to close your eyes to reality. The EU sanctions that were supposed to hurt the Russian economy, ideally by so much that support for the war would stop, don't have the desired effect. In fact they might even have boosted the Russian economy at some point, and also they are driving Russia into the arms of China.

Etherlord87 3y ago
> I'm not sure why you're mentioning them if you already knew that I'm not defending Russia. Because an argument is correct or incorrect regardless who makes it. > On the other hand, this is no excuse to close your eyes to reality... For example the reality of USD to RUB exchange rate, that went down after annexation of Crimea, and went further down after February 2022. > ...The EU sanctions that were supposed to hurt the Russian economy,.. And did. > ...ideally by so much that support for the war would stop,... Failed here. We need more sanctions, especially as with time russia learns to circumvent them. > ...don't have the desired effect... They don't have the desired, as you put it, ideal effect. There is some clear effect however. > ...In fact they might even have boosted the Russian economy at some point,... The sanctions like stopping the flights were devastating, so I can't be sure, but I can agree due to the "might" word being used. I'm very open-minded that in the short term such boost may have happened, and I argue how in some ways it's to be expected. > ...and also they are driving Russia into the arms of China. The power of China is hugely overestimated by an average Joe. Probably due to Chinese propaganda, people think we (the west) rely on China more than the China relies on us. Which is very far from true. Strengthening China by vassalization of russia is bad, but if russia is forced to become a vassal, it only proves the sanctions do work and hurt it.