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See, this is exactly what I was talking about. With all due respect to the IFA and all other people involved in the climate issue - they obviously know more tha
by Yizahi 3y ago
See, this is exactly what I was talking about. With all due respect to the IFA and all other people involved in the climate issue - they obviously know more than me, they obviously have a better expertise. And they may be even correct. Who knows, maybe emissions are indeed slowing down. The problem is that "Emissions" is a doubly problematic value. It is a derivative number (because it is impossible to measure directly), so it is an estimation which relies on other estimations. And another problem is that it is kinda meaningless on its own, we aren't interested in the emissions per se, we are interested in the damage done by them, in particular temperature. And temperature depends on the amount of GH gasses deposited by emissions.
So IFA paints a bright rosy future for us, emissions peaked and will even go down. But if we go to the agency measuring actual CO2 in the atmosphere (and let's not forget about methane and other gasses), we see that the graph is only ever increasing and slowly turning upwards from the mean line, accelerating.
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/ https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/
PS: I really hope to be wrong in this. Reeeeally hope.
- ZeroGravitas 3y agoIt's hard to see on that graph but the last 4 years have been on a downward trend i.e. still increasing but increasing less per year than the decade before: https://www.co2.earth/co2-acceleration https://www.co2.earth/co2-acceleration See the graph at the bottom titled "Annual CO2 Growth Rates" This is apparently partly due to el nino effects, but still, it leaves a small opening for hope.