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Global coal usage reached all time highs last year. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/global-coal-use-all-time-high-2023-iea-2023-12-15/ ht

Global coal usage reached all time highs last year. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/global-coal-use-all-time-high-2023-iea-2023-12-15/ https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/global... Seems like not where we want to be 26 years from net zero.

defrost 3y ago
The International Energy Agency Coal Report has it that global coal use has reached peak per annum and will decline from now forwards. Very few countries are bucking that trend. IIRC India is the greatest exception. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38652273 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38652273
- itzprime 3y ago
  a yes, they already said that already in 2015, 2017
  - defrost 3y ago
    The IEA did NOT say that global coal demand had peaked in 2015, nor did they say that in 2017. IEA Coal 2015:https://www.iea.org/reports/medium-term-coal-market-report-2015 https://www.iea.org/reports/medium-term-coal-market-report-2... IEA Coal 2017: https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2017 https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2017 You seem to have misremembered discussions about declines in demand, and possibilities of local country peaks. Don't sweat it, it's easy to confuse first and second derivitives but do please check your sources and your tone.
- samarthr1 3y ago
  For a good portion of the nation, _some_ power is better than no power. Unlike the west which had electrified heavily early on, India has lagged on that front. The government of india is building coal capacity, as well as renewable capacity. We are rather fortunate that our peak of power use oft coincides with peak solar (as, our largest non industrial power consumers have usually been air conditioners). The electricity demand in india is only going to grow, and i would expect that coal will be one of the many sources of electricity, and will probably decline. As a society, I hope that we electrify, and fast. We are also seeing a revolution of electric scooters in the country, which are cost competitive with ICE scooters already (less than 33% more). If this trend continues, I would expect that the demand for electricity will further grow
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    > revolution of electric scooters in the country It's definetly happening in Tier 3/4 towns and villages. Electric 3-Wheelers and eRickshaws have taken market share from autos which are horrible polluters. Battery swapping is the strategy most Indian and JP/SK companies are thinking about EVs in India.
    - samarthr1 3y ago
      A nice thing that i noticed was the increased prevalence is battery swapping stations in bengaluru. I had gone mall hopping with friends, and found many of the malls also had a battery swapping station.
      - alephnerd 3y ago
        Yep. 3 Wheelers are becoming electric now as bike rickshaw drivers converted to eRickshaw and electric 3 wheelers because apps like Uber and Ola treat electric and ICE autos as the same. This meant that a bike rickshaw driver could bypass the auto unions and work directly. This is happening all over India, and autorickshaw unions have started trying to stop this by hook and by crook.
ZeroGravitas 3y ago
It was going nearly straight up at the start of the century so things have certainly improved in that it's been kind of flat for a few years. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coal-consumption-by-country-terawatt-hours-twh?tab=chart&country=IND~JPN~DEU~USA~GBR~OWID_WRL~CHN https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coal-consumption-by-count...
Retric 3y ago
I generally dunk on China, but they are moving surprisingly quickly. China which burns half the worlds coal built 219 GW of solar last year which bumped there installed capacity by 55%. For scale in 2020 there was only 760 GW of solar power installed on earth. At ~25% capacity factor that’s and additional ~473 TWh in 2024 or roughly the same energy as their nuclear reactors, but only half of it was produced in 2023 because the average solar panel was available for 6 months not 12 meaning annual numbers are lagging indicator. They will likely hit their Paris agreement target for 2030 in 2025. This is on pace for ~100% of electricity from renewables in around 20 years assuming they can get storage online, and they are a massive battery manufacturer so it seems possible. Net zero by year X isn’t the question the question is how many tons of carbon you release before net zero. Cut CO2 emissions in half quickly and you get more wiggle room. I’m feeling fairly optimistic right now.

defrost 3y ago

The International Energy Agency Coal Report has it that global coal use has reached peak per annum and will decline from now forwards. Very few countries are bucking that trend. IIRC India is the greatest exception. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38652273 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38652273

itzprime 3y ago
a yes, they already said that already in 2015, 2017
- defrost 3y ago
  The IEA did NOT say that global coal demand had peaked in 2015, nor did they say that in 2017. IEA Coal 2015:https://www.iea.org/reports/medium-term-coal-market-report-2015 https://www.iea.org/reports/medium-term-coal-market-report-2... IEA Coal 2017: https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2017 https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2017 You seem to have misremembered discussions about declines in demand, and possibilities of local country peaks. Don't sweat it, it's easy to confuse first and second derivitives but do please check your sources and your tone.
samarthr1 3y ago
For a good portion of the nation, _some_ power is better than no power. Unlike the west which had electrified heavily early on, India has lagged on that front. The government of india is building coal capacity, as well as renewable capacity. We are rather fortunate that our peak of power use oft coincides with peak solar (as, our largest non industrial power consumers have usually been air conditioners). The electricity demand in india is only going to grow, and i would expect that coal will be one of the many sources of electricity, and will probably decline. As a society, I hope that we electrify, and fast. We are also seeing a revolution of electric scooters in the country, which are cost competitive with ICE scooters already (less than 33% more). If this trend continues, I would expect that the demand for electricity will further grow
- alephnerd 3y ago
  > revolution of electric scooters in the country It's definetly happening in Tier 3/4 towns and villages. Electric 3-Wheelers and eRickshaws have taken market share from autos which are horrible polluters. Battery swapping is the strategy most Indian and JP/SK companies are thinking about EVs in India.
  - samarthr1 3y ago
    A nice thing that i noticed was the increased prevalence is battery swapping stations in bengaluru. I had gone mall hopping with friends, and found many of the malls also had a battery swapping station.
    - alephnerd 3y ago
      Yep. 3 Wheelers are becoming electric now as bike rickshaw drivers converted to eRickshaw and electric 3 wheelers because apps like Uber and Ola treat electric and ICE autos as the same. This meant that a bike rickshaw driver could bypass the auto unions and work directly. This is happening all over India, and autorickshaw unions have started trying to stop this by hook and by crook.

ZeroGravitas 3y ago

It was going nearly straight up at the start of the century so things have certainly improved in that it's been kind of flat for a few years. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coal-consumption-by-country-terawatt-hours-twh?tab=chart&country=IND~JPN~DEU~USA~GBR~OWID_WRL~CHN https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coal-consumption-by-count...

Retric 3y ago

I generally dunk on China, but they are moving surprisingly quickly. China which burns half the worlds coal built 219 GW of solar last year which bumped there installed capacity by 55%. For scale in 2020 there was only 760 GW of solar power installed on earth. At ~25% capacity factor that’s and additional ~473 TWh in 2024 or roughly the same energy as their nuclear reactors, but only half of it was produced in 2023 because the average solar panel was available for 6 months not 12 meaning annual numbers are lagging indicator. They will likely hit their Paris agreement target for 2030 in 2025. This is on pace for ~100% of electricity from renewables in around 20 years assuming they can get storage online, and they are a massive battery manufacturer so it seems possible. Net zero by year X isn’t the question the question is how many tons of carbon you release before net zero. Cut CO2 emissions in half quickly and you get more wiggle room. I’m feeling fairly optimistic right now.