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I guess I'm not quite sure how those are the two options. For the second scenario, if LLMs are the local maximum and hit a wall, OpenAI would only be in a good

I guess I'm not quite sure how those are the two options. For the second scenario, if LLMs are the local maximum and hit a wall, OpenAI would only be in a good spot if the challenges hit don't invalidate core differentiators of their company. For example, if GPU-based systems are the limiting factor they wouldn't have the edge. If the problem turns out to be in the human skills and background needed to develop an AGI they similarly wouldn't have the advantage. Wouldn't there have to be a third scenario, where they walked down a path that doesn't pan out at all and requires a fundamental rethink effectively going back to square one?

atq2119 3y ago
If human skills behind the model are a limiting factor, then OpenAI is in a pretty good position: they have a headstart, and software tends towards "winner takes all" because of the low marginal cost. Look at Google search for a great example of this in a related (perhaps even the same...) market. Of course, a pretty good position doesn't guarantee winning, but GP didn't claim that. But yeah, there are probably outcomes in which LLMs are a local maximum and ultimately dead end, and OpenAI will have a hard time holding on because the market turns out more competitive. And somebody might beat them to whatever the next important invention is. We'll see.