Current valuations of companies don’t necessarily need to reflect the future earnings in a smooth curve. For example if I believe that theirs is a 50% chance th

Current valuations of companies don’t necessarily need to reflect the future earnings in a smooth curve. For example if I believe that theirs is a 50% chance that someone will catch up to nvidia in 20 years this should still be priced way above 20x because they might not. A lot of investors might feel that way and it might be another decade until the stock price drops significantly.