3 ms·

basically deal goes thru is p(republican admin takes over) + p(win in court) + p(settlement deal of some sort).

by jsyang00 3y ago

option 3y ago
You should replace all + with * in your formula.
- jsyang00 3y ago
  any of these would result in deal going through
- ghayes 3y ago
  Or use log-probabilities
zht 3y ago
a republican admin denied Visa + plaid... so I wouldn't assume anything
MuffinFlavored 3y ago
Trump won in 2016, then lost in 2020 because he lost XYZ groups of voters. All of the people who didn't vote for Trump in 2020, why would they flip from Democrat to Republican and vote for him in 2024?
- shiroiushi 3y ago
  Trump got more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016, IIRC. While some people most likely did flip to Biden in 2020, there were also many, many people who voted 3rd-party in 2016 who didn't in 2020, and I think there was also higher voter turnout. The danger, as usual for Democrats, isn't people flipping to Trump, it's people not bothering to vote (or giving it to another party like the Greens) because they don't like the Dems' candidate. For the most part, Hillary didn't lose in 2016 because people voted for Trump instead of her; she lost because voters who normally would have voted (D) either stayed at home or voted for a protest party. Biden didn't have so much of a problem this way, for various reasons (voters liked him better to begin with, and they had just lived through the horrors of 4 years of a Trump presidency).
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
ecshafer 3y ago
The current (democrat) president was a Senator from Delaware whose nickname was "Credit Card Joe" because he was so friendly to the credit card companies which are big powers in his state. Partisan politics aside, Joe Biden's been known since the 80s as an extremely pro bank and credit card politician. Here are some Left leaning articles on the matter: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/11/biden-bankruptcy-president/ https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/11/biden-bankruptc... https://www.propublica.org/article/bidens-cozy-relations-with-bank-industry-825 https://www.propublica.org/article/bidens-cozy-relations-wit...

basically deal goes thru is p(republican admin takes over) + p(win in court) + p(settlement deal of some sort).

option 3y ago

You should replace all + with * in your formula.

jsyang00 3y ago
any of these would result in deal going through
ghayes 3y ago
Or use log-probabilities

zht 3y ago

a republican admin denied Visa + plaid... so I wouldn't assume anything

MuffinFlavored 3y ago

Trump won in 2016, then lost in 2020 because he lost XYZ groups of voters. All of the people who didn't vote for Trump in 2020, why would they flip from Democrat to Republican and vote for him in 2024?

shiroiushi 3y ago
Trump got more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016, IIRC. While some people most likely did flip to Biden in 2020, there were also many, many people who voted 3rd-party in 2016 who didn't in 2020, and I think there was also higher voter turnout. The danger, as usual for Democrats, isn't people flipping to Trump, it's people not bothering to vote (or giving it to another party like the Greens) because they don't like the Dems' candidate. For the most part, Hillary didn't lose in 2016 because people voted for Trump instead of her; she lost because voters who normally would have voted (D) either stayed at home or voted for a protest party. Biden didn't have so much of a problem this way, for various reasons (voters liked him better to begin with, and they had just lived through the horrors of 4 years of a Trump presidency).
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

ecshafer 3y ago

The current (democrat) president was a Senator from Delaware whose nickname was "Credit Card Joe" because he was so friendly to the credit card companies which are big powers in his state. Partisan politics aside, Joe Biden's been known since the 80s as an extremely pro bank and credit card politician. Here are some Left leaning articles on the matter: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/11/biden-bankruptcy-president/ https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/11/biden-bankruptc... https://www.propublica.org/article/bidens-cozy-relations-with-bank-industry-825 https://www.propublica.org/article/bidens-cozy-relations-wit...