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Doubtful. Most of these companies want to own the tech. I'm actually concerned they won't be able to sell it if they tried - Chrysler is actively developing a

by Qworg 14y ago

Doubtful. Most of these companies want to own the tech. I'm actually concerned they won't be able to sell it if they tried - Chrysler is actively developing a self-driving system that they hope to deploy in 2 years.

jsnell 14y ago
Really? I'm no expert, but this seems like a market where it'd be natural for there to be only a few major players, rather than every manufacturer having their proprietary implementations. Why would you build an in-house system rather than buy one? Generally because buying is more expensive in the long run, because you can build a better one, or because keeping the expertise in-house allows for more chances of integration. The expense idea makes no sense. This is software we're talking about, so the marginal cost is always going to be 0. It's also software that's likely going to have to through very expensive certification procedures to be allowed on the roads (or to be allowed by insurance companies). How could it possibly be economical for a manufacturer with 2% market share to do this on their own? So could a smallish manufacturer at least build a better one, if not cheaper? It's hard to see why you'd expect that. Maybe if 20 of them tried, a couple of them would end up with a better technology than what could be bought. But even if that's true, it's not going to brighten the day of the remaining 18 manufacturers who ended up with substandard software. There's one obvious exception (regional differences - maybe Japanese drivers have very different preferences from German ones, or something). Are there any integration benefits from making the software for self driving cars in-house? I can't think of any, but I'm not too familiar with the automotive industry. Maybe there's something obvious I'm missing. Of course there's no guarantee that even if the future ends up as one of a few major in-house systems and a couple of successful publicly available ones, Google's solution would be one of the successful ones. Still seems like it's worth a shot.
- Qworg 14y ago
  There are very few standardized systems in the automotive industry, especially for "luxury items". Recently, that's changed with some manufacturers using the same undercarriage to build different cars. It would take a huge change in the mindset of a car manufacturer to buy something like this that could be a competitive advantage.
  - tomkarlo 14y ago
    Granted, but given that most of them haven't even been able to get their in-dash software systems right (look at Ford's debacle), how likely are they to be able to make dependable self-driving cars?

by Qworg 14y ago

jsnell 14y ago

Really? I'm no expert, but this seems like a market where it'd be natural for there to be only a few major players, rather than every manufacturer having their proprietary implementations. Why would you build an in-house system rather than buy one? Generally because buying is more expensive in the long run, because you can build a better one, or because keeping the expertise in-house allows for more chances of integration. The expense idea makes no sense. This is software we're talking about, so the marginal cost is always going to be 0. It's also software that's likely going to have to through very expensive certification procedures to be allowed on the roads (or to be allowed by insurance companies). How could it possibly be economical for a manufacturer with 2% market share to do this on their own? So could a smallish manufacturer at least build a better one, if not cheaper? It's hard to see why you'd expect that. Maybe if 20 of them tried, a couple of them would end up with a better technology than what could be bought. But even if that's true, it's not going to brighten the day of the remaining 18 manufacturers who ended up with substandard software. There's one obvious exception (regional differences - maybe Japanese drivers have very different preferences from German ones, or something). Are there any integration benefits from making the software for self driving cars in-house? I can't think of any, but I'm not too familiar with the automotive industry. Maybe there's something obvious I'm missing. Of course there's no guarantee that even if the future ends up as one of a few major in-house systems and a couple of successful publicly available ones, Google's solution would be one of the successful ones. Still seems like it's worth a shot.

Qworg 14y ago
There are very few standardized systems in the automotive industry, especially for "luxury items". Recently, that's changed with some manufacturers using the same undercarriage to build different cars. It would take a huge change in the mindset of a car manufacturer to buy something like this that could be a competitive advantage.
- tomkarlo 14y ago
  Granted, but given that most of them haven't even been able to get their in-dash software systems right (look at Ford's debacle), how likely are they to be able to make dependable self-driving cars?