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> what is the likely MARGINAL improvements in weights that your hypothetical 50 million buys Wrong question. The marginal improvements of a specific model m

by stale2002 3y ago

> what is the likely MARGINAL improvements in weights that your hypothetical 50 million buys Wrong question. The marginal improvements of a specific model might be marginal, but what matters is new models for different usecases. For example, we have great image generation models 6 months ago, and one coming out now isn't going to be that much better. But, what is starting to get good right now is generative video models. And the video models are a huge marginal improvement over what was available 6 months ago. Now do the same thing for any other use case. We have reasonable good videos now, but what about 3d models? Those mostly suck right now. Lots of improvement opportunities that wouldn't exist if training new models was banned. There might be a dozen such major usecases that don't exist yet, where we can't repurpose old models, and instead need to train an entirely new model with different data. Making sure we still get that innovation is still important.

jrm4 3y ago
No one actually knows "what matters" yet, and also no one knows whether or not you actually need "new models." Everything you're saying right now is extremely hypothetical. The tech is very shiny, no doubt about that. But it's wildly conclusory to think "Yes, there will definitely be a demand for new use cases AND ALSO you definitely will be unable to create those new models without big money investment." Again, it sounds to me exactly like someone clamoring for "big investment in a new, revolutionary, operating system." Nothing at all inevitable about that for MANY reasons, most having to do with "incremental building on the past thing that already works is probably the most feasible."
- deleted 3y ago
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- stale2002 3y ago
  > and also no one knows whether or not you actually need "new models." All the more reason to not make it illegal to train these new models. There are massively improved models coming out once a month. There could be many more to come. As you said, we don't even know where this stops! and the current innovation is very large right now. Therefore, it is premature to just ban all of that, when we don't even know how much more innovation there is to go. So the point stands. The massive amount of innovation that has helped open source has all been driving by these new models being released. And there could be many more to come. > Everything you're saying right now is extremely hypothetical. Looking at the fact that we come out with a powerful new model every month is not hypothetical. I am referencing existing reality here.

jrm4 3y ago

No one actually knows "what matters" yet, and also no one knows whether or not you actually need "new models." Everything you're saying right now is extremely hypothetical. The tech is very shiny, no doubt about that. But it's wildly conclusory to think "Yes, there will definitely be a demand for new use cases AND ALSO you definitely will be unable to create those new models without big money investment." Again, it sounds to me exactly like someone clamoring for "big investment in a new, revolutionary, operating system." Nothing at all inevitable about that for MANY reasons, most having to do with "incremental building on the past thing that already works is probably the most feasible."

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
stale2002 3y ago
> and also no one knows whether or not you actually need "new models." All the more reason to not make it illegal to train these new models. There are massively improved models coming out once a month. There could be many more to come. As you said, we don't even know where this stops! and the current innovation is very large right now. Therefore, it is premature to just ban all of that, when we don't even know how much more innovation there is to go. So the point stands. The massive amount of innovation that has helped open source has all been driving by these new models being released. And there could be many more to come. > Everything you're saying right now is extremely hypothetical. Looking at the fact that we come out with a powerful new model every month is not hypothetical. I am referencing existing reality here.