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This is a really good comment. The principle, "Exits are harder than entries," comes up in a lot of different places. Hindsight bias distorts the picture. Wha
by gruseom 15y ago
This is a really good comment.
The principle, "Exits are harder than entries," comes up in a lot of different places.
Hindsight bias distorts the picture. What could be more obvious than that, say, the Twitter guys were right to keep making Twitter even when nobody else cared. But whenever we think that way, we're retroactively assuming the power to predict the future. Then we find ourselves in some real situation that matters and that superpower doesn't work and we're totally stumped. (Edit: actually almost all our vocabulary around "persistence" assumes hindsight. When something turns out to have worked, you displayed plucky perseverance. When it fails, you were a stubborn fool. In real time, these qualities are not so easy to tell apart! Maybe they're the same thing sometimes.)
So what do you do? It's a hard, deep question. I agree with stevenj. Consult the heart.
- Alex3917 15y agoI'd have to disagree on this one. Clearly there are tons of people excited about the idea of Adioso. The problem is that the technology doesn't deliver. No matter how ridiculous of a schedule I'm willing to put up with, I still can't get from NYC to Cambodia and back for $300 or whatever. And it's not even clear that that will ever be possible no matter how much time they put into developing it. Now if they were able to figure out a way to charter planes that would otherwise be flying empty and get them filled to capacity so that I actually could go to some random country in SouthEast asia for a few hundred bucks then that would be awesome. But that simply hasn't happened yet.