You've got my wording reversed. I said: recessions cause rate-drops. Which has always been true. Rate-drops don't always cure recessions, but its one of the fi

You've got my wording reversed. I said: recessions cause rate-drops. Which has always been true. Rate-drops don't always cure recessions, but its one of the first moves a central bank will make to try to fix a recession. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS That's 2020, 2007, 2000, 1990, 1981, 1979 where a recession immediately caused a rate-drop. We have to go all the way back to 1974 before we had inflation so high that the central bank kept rates high even during a recession. (Dropping rates causes inflation, so its a balancing act). Even then, interest rates dropped to bring us out of the recession of 1974. After that, we have 1969, 1959, and 1957 recessions, all three of which caused interest rates to drop. So 9/10 times, a recession caused an immediate drop in interest rates. And the last 1 time (1974), the recession _eventually_ caused the bankers to drop rates. > Consider as well the cost of “printing money” if the rate reaches double digits, and the cost of refinancing the existing debt load. You've got it backwards. Increases rates destroy money. Lower-rates print money. That's why the central bank lowers rates during recessions, its an indirect way to print money (or perhaps more accurately, expand M2). Raising rates, like what we're doing today, destroys money (or more accurately, contracts M2). We're destroying money today with 5%+ interest rates because we've seemingly made too much in the 2020 recession / COVID19.