5 ms·

If I had to gander a guess, most of people who were going to buy an EV have already bought one, and a certain percentage of the market will always be impenetrab

If I had to gander a guess, most of people who were going to buy an EV have already bought one, and a certain percentage of the market will always be impenetrable so long as charging a car battery is more inconvenient than filling up a gas tank.

Tostino 3y ago
Far from the truth. I have been building PEVs since I was in my teens (ebikes, scooters, a boat). When it came to buy a new car for the first time in my life in 2020, there were no EV options that would do what I needed (large cargo capacity, 6+ seats, not extremely expensive, decent range for road trips). Sorry, I'm not spending 100k on a vehicle. So I ended up getting a Palisade for around 32k, and my wife and I share that, at least until until better (and cheaper) EV options appear. Luckily I can use my ebike for most of my around town travel, and that is way less of a carbon footprint than adding an extra vehicle to the roads.
rstuart4133 3y ago
That would be a very game guess, given up until last year EV sales look to be rising quadratically or better. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/electric-car-sales-2016-2023 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/electric-car-... It's more likely EV sales are driven by cost. They have always been more expensive than ICE cars, so they only eaten into the luxury market up until now so the rises you see are increasingly bigger bites out of the luxury market. But the primary cost is batteries, and a blip during COVID aside the cost of batteries has dropped every year. EV are approaching the cost of ICE cars now, if you include a bit of hand waving about maintenance costs. Once they cross cost threshold and drop below the cost of ICE cars, that quadratic curve will go exponential for a while. Chargers will spring up like weeds, because you can make money out of them and they cost far, far less to build and run than a gas station.
- nebula8804 3y ago
  I keep hearing this argument but as someone who has been shopping for a EV for months now I don't see it. EV proponents need to understand one important thing: People like their gas cars because they are actually pretty good these days. The EV needs to overcome that. The car I am benchmarking against is the Mazda CX-5. The natural equivalent is the Model Y. The CX-5 is a fully mature platform and is an excellent example of a solid ICE vehicle. Mazda CX-5 Cost: $29,300 (possible out the door price ~35K) Model Y cost: Demo vehicle out the door price is ~41K My upper bound price is 35K and im seriously exploring used given Mazdas reliability so I can save myself ~10K for a recent model year. I cant do the same on the Model Y because of Tesla's poor quality reputation. Either I am stuck taking a massive risk on a used Model Y or I am priced out of the market. Repair costs on the Model Y are insane. This is not including the fact that the Insurance cost on a Model Y is almost double that of a CX-5 for me. (970$/yr vs 1700$/year) Now I have also considered other EVs but none provide an equivalent to what the CX-5 offers. Theres the used Mach-E market but I have concerns about reliability and given the whole issue with the contactors and how Ford handled it, I don't think this car will last long term. OK, lets ignore that issue, you still get a bad looking car that gives poor value for the price you have to pay (I can only buy used and it is still on the upper bound of what my budget is) There is the Chevy Bolt EUV. Good insurance, easily within my price range but I am giving up everything else. Terrible charging speeds (made worse because I dont have supercharger access), not really a crossover, terrible looks, not as comfortable as CX-5. This is just my anecdote but there has got to be many others who have made the same conclusion as me about EVs. You have to compromise in at least one of the following areas with every EV: Price, looks, comfort, value
  - fragmede 3y ago
    What's the "massive risk" on a used model Y?
    - nebula8804 3y ago
      Becoming underwater on repair costs.
      - ein0p 3y ago
        What “repair costs”? I’ve owned a Model Y for 3 years now. My repair or maintenance costs were $0.
        nebula8804 3y ago
        Good for you. The number of complaints I see on the Teslamotors subreddit, TMC forums, youtube, and Truedelta make me unlikely to take you at your word. With something so important and expensive on the line why would I make the decision based on your anecdote?
        fragmede 3y ago
        why would you your decision on anecodoes of disgruntled users instead though? people who aren't having problems aren't going to storm over to TMC forums and yell THINGS ARE FINE! how many model Y's have been sold, and how many people are posting? my thoughts here aren't about Tesla, but about the broader online complaints system. people who aren't even thinking about it (food from a restaurant, service from a auto shop, whatever) just aren't motivated to go online and say things are fine because they're busy having lives outside of yelling how fine their experience is, so we get this distorted view of the situation because of that.
        fragmede 3y ago
        https://youtu.be/sKcrsdvlBzE https://youtu.be/sKcrsdvlBzE is where I'm coming from.
xetplan 3y ago
The market is only impenetrable because of the price. If we had used subsidies to undercut gas powered cars we would be much further along than subsidizing expensive status symbols for people who have to always have the latest iphone. Of course, demand was going to slow from that market from saturation. The same reason I use an android and so do a 130 million other Americans. I am cost conscious and I will never pay more for an EV if I can pay less for a gas powered car. The main problem IMO is the groups making these decisions all have the latest iphone at the margin. "No one wants an android" besides for nearly half the population that shop based on price.

Tostino 3y ago

Far from the truth. I have been building PEVs since I was in my teens (ebikes, scooters, a boat). When it came to buy a new car for the first time in my life in 2020, there were no EV options that would do what I needed (large cargo capacity, 6+ seats, not extremely expensive, decent range for road trips). Sorry, I'm not spending 100k on a vehicle. So I ended up getting a Palisade for around 32k, and my wife and I share that, at least until until better (and cheaper) EV options appear. Luckily I can use my ebike for most of my around town travel, and that is way less of a carbon footprint than adding an extra vehicle to the roads.

rstuart4133 3y ago

That would be a very game guess, given up until last year EV sales look to be rising quadratically or better. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/electric-car-sales-2016-2023 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/electric-car-... It's more likely EV sales are driven by cost. They have always been more expensive than ICE cars, so they only eaten into the luxury market up until now so the rises you see are increasingly bigger bites out of the luxury market. But the primary cost is batteries, and a blip during COVID aside the cost of batteries has dropped every year. EV are approaching the cost of ICE cars now, if you include a bit of hand waving about maintenance costs. Once they cross cost threshold and drop below the cost of ICE cars, that quadratic curve will go exponential for a while. Chargers will spring up like weeds, because you can make money out of them and they cost far, far less to build and run than a gas station.

nebula8804 3y ago
I keep hearing this argument but as someone who has been shopping for a EV for months now I don't see it. EV proponents need to understand one important thing: People like their gas cars because they are actually pretty good these days. The EV needs to overcome that. The car I am benchmarking against is the Mazda CX-5. The natural equivalent is the Model Y. The CX-5 is a fully mature platform and is an excellent example of a solid ICE vehicle. Mazda CX-5 Cost: $29,300 (possible out the door price ~35K) Model Y cost: Demo vehicle out the door price is ~41K My upper bound price is 35K and im seriously exploring used given Mazdas reliability so I can save myself ~10K for a recent model year. I cant do the same on the Model Y because of Tesla's poor quality reputation. Either I am stuck taking a massive risk on a used Model Y or I am priced out of the market. Repair costs on the Model Y are insane. This is not including the fact that the Insurance cost on a Model Y is almost double that of a CX-5 for me. (970$/yr vs 1700$/year) Now I have also considered other EVs but none provide an equivalent to what the CX-5 offers. Theres the used Mach-E market but I have concerns about reliability and given the whole issue with the contactors and how Ford handled it, I don't think this car will last long term. OK, lets ignore that issue, you still get a bad looking car that gives poor value for the price you have to pay (I can only buy used and it is still on the upper bound of what my budget is) There is the Chevy Bolt EUV. Good insurance, easily within my price range but I am giving up everything else. Terrible charging speeds (made worse because I dont have supercharger access), not really a crossover, terrible looks, not as comfortable as CX-5. This is just my anecdote but there has got to be many others who have made the same conclusion as me about EVs. You have to compromise in at least one of the following areas with every EV: Price, looks, comfort, value
- fragmede 3y ago
  What's the "massive risk" on a used model Y?
  - nebula8804 3y ago
    Becoming underwater on repair costs.
    - ein0p 3y ago
      What “repair costs”? I’ve owned a Model Y for 3 years now. My repair or maintenance costs were $0.
      - nebula8804 3y ago
        Good for you. The number of complaints I see on the Teslamotors subreddit, TMC forums, youtube, and Truedelta make me unlikely to take you at your word. With something so important and expensive on the line why would I make the decision based on your anecdote?
        fragmede 3y ago
        why would you your decision on anecodoes of disgruntled users instead though? people who aren't having problems aren't going to storm over to TMC forums and yell THINGS ARE FINE! how many model Y's have been sold, and how many people are posting? my thoughts here aren't about Tesla, but about the broader online complaints system. people who aren't even thinking about it (food from a restaurant, service from a auto shop, whatever) just aren't motivated to go online and say things are fine because they're busy having lives outside of yelling how fine their experience is, so we get this distorted view of the situation because of that.
        fragmede 3y ago
        https://youtu.be/sKcrsdvlBzE https://youtu.be/sKcrsdvlBzE is where I'm coming from.

xetplan 3y ago

The market is only impenetrable because of the price. If we had used subsidies to undercut gas powered cars we would be much further along than subsidizing expensive status symbols for people who have to always have the latest iphone. Of course, demand was going to slow from that market from saturation. The same reason I use an android and so do a 130 million other Americans. I am cost conscious and I will never pay more for an EV if I can pay less for a gas powered car. The main problem IMO is the groups making these decisions all have the latest iphone at the margin. "No one wants an android" besides for nearly half the population that shop based on price.