3 ms·
> For example, what amount of effort is appropriate to prevent a one time event which kills you with say 1 in ten thousand times? if you value being killed at
by airstrike 3y ago
> For example, what amount of effort is appropriate to prevent a one time event which kills you with say 1 in ten thousand times?
if you value being killed at a massively negative value, then 1/10,000 times that value is still a massively negative value, so the answer is "a huge amount of effort"
- samatman 3y agoFor some value of "massive", sure. But for any value of massive, it's 1/10,000th that value. Then you factor in the value derived from taking that risk, and there's your choice. The reality is that I don't expend huge amounts of effort avoiding tail risks, and you don't either. You might for the ones you're explicitly aware of, but a risk is a risk whether or not you know you're taking it.