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I think you're right about insurance companies playing a big role, we've already seen 20% discounts for having Adaptive Cruise Control in Europe. But I don't th

I think you're right about insurance companies playing a big role, we've already seen 20% discounts for having Adaptive Cruise Control in Europe. But I don't think this will be a quick change. First, people take awhile to replace their cars. I don't know the stats for this, but 10-year old vehicles don't seem atypical. The good news is that gives a chance for reducing costs. It was back-of-the-envelope calculation based on parts only, but one article I read estimated 5-10k would be added to Cadillac's self driving car if they introduced it by 2015. [1] Second, there are still some hard problems to solve. According to Thrun, they don't have a solution for snowy roads that block the car's vision of the lane markers, and Cadillac's vehicle has the same problem. That'll also be a problem in areas of construction where line markers aren't accurately marking the road. There's also some major regional challenges. In Pittsburgh, per a convention known as the Pittsburgh Left, a driver stopped at a red light will pause after the light turns green to allow the “first driver in the oncoming traffic... to make a left turn.” Thrun's team is working on collecting massive amounts of data to overcome niche issues like that, but is that something every car manufacturer will have access to? I think we can also expect some legal barriers to be a problem. I don't have the best grasp on this, but from a RAND report I read it sounds like state tort law, combined with the complete lack of state or federal laws concerning autonomous cars, could create liability issues for manufacturers. Maybe that would necessitate some lobbying and court battles before manufacturers risk masses of autonomous cars? It's hard for me to tell how important these issues are because the biggest player, Google, isn't focused on the market now. Ultimately you're clearly right, autonomous cars are definitely the future, but I'm feeling more of a gradual shift as problems are ironed out and the prices of sensors are reduced. [1]http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/126841-cadillac-promises-self-driving-cars-by-2015 http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/126841-cadillac-promises-...

smokinn 14y ago
I think you're making OP's point quite well albeit inadvertently. Personal ownership of a self-driving car is a ridiculous concept. Why would the car have to wait around in the parking lot all day while you're at work? It could easily keep running around ferrying people places. And yet many people will want to own one simply because they think they should own a car. I think the real future is a market for renting car time. Prices will be high during peak periods (morning and evening commuters) but cheap during the mid-afternoon. The lack of a large up-front cost will likely drive adoption faster than many expect, especially given the new resistance to car ownership coming from younger people: http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/why-dont-young-americans-buy-cars/255001/ http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/why-dont... I live in a city, as do pretty much all my friends. I walk almost everywhere and occasionally take a taxi when going out in the evenings. On rare occasions a friend with a ZipCar membership will ferry us out of town if we're going somewhere far. None of us actually own a car. We're the target market for the self-driving cars since we've already made the social adjustments.
- SoftwareMaven 14y ago
  On the flip side, I'm a parent of four who would jump on this as a way to reduce from two to one cars while also reducing the pain of ferrying kids around to school, lessons, practice, recitals, etc. True self-driving (as opposed to "licensed driver paying attention but not needing to hold the wheel") will be adopted very quickly.
  - brc 14y ago
    You bring up an interesting point. Would you, as a parent, be happy with a driverless car going to collect your child from school/wherever? At what age of the child would you be happy with that?
    - SoftwareMaven 14y ago
      Eventually, yes, but not until they are of an age that they can reliably recognize their own car and are comfortable being alone forthe trip (sevenish, probably, but also depends on how long the trip is), though I can easily imagine some simple tools that would help pair child and car and comfort the child (nothing like watching videos to keep Tommy entertained on a drive).
- mkramlich 14y ago
  > Why would the car have to wait around in the parking lot all day while you're at work? It could easily keep running around ferrying people places. Yes those are called buses and taxis. :) they already exist. they're dirty. and they're not always available when you need them. One advantage to what you're proposing though is that unlike buses and trains you wouldn't have to put up with dirty, dangerous or rude people near you in the same vehicle.
  - jonknee 14y ago
    Why would there need to be other people in the car? It would most likely work just like cabs, but without a driver. You tap a button on your mobile and a car pulls up already knowing where you are going.
neonkiwi 14y ago
I think the figure of added costs is sensationalist at best. The Velodyne LiDAR sensor alone that Google uses is $85,000. I think we'll see self-driving cars soon enough, but I'd be surprised if the Old Guard of car manufacturers will lead the way there.
- hyperbovine 14y ago
  The first car CD player (Philips DC-085, for the curious) cost $800 in 1987, or ~$1600 today dollars. Who knows how much money they spent on the prototypes. These things will become affordable if the demand is there.
PerryCox 14y ago
Wikipedia regarding "The Pittsburgh Left": >It is an illegal and controversial practice.[1] [1]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pittsburgh_left http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pittsburgh_left
- jlgreco 14y ago
  It hardly matters if it is illegal and controversial. If it is seen in reality, then it is a case they must consider.

smokinn 14y ago

I think you're making OP's point quite well albeit inadvertently. Personal ownership of a self-driving car is a ridiculous concept. Why would the car have to wait around in the parking lot all day while you're at work? It could easily keep running around ferrying people places. And yet many people will want to own one simply because they think they should own a car. I think the real future is a market for renting car time. Prices will be high during peak periods (morning and evening commuters) but cheap during the mid-afternoon. The lack of a large up-front cost will likely drive adoption faster than many expect, especially given the new resistance to car ownership coming from younger people: http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/why-dont-young-americans-buy-cars/255001/ http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/why-dont... I live in a city, as do pretty much all my friends. I walk almost everywhere and occasionally take a taxi when going out in the evenings. On rare occasions a friend with a ZipCar membership will ferry us out of town if we're going somewhere far. None of us actually own a car. We're the target market for the self-driving cars since we've already made the social adjustments.

SoftwareMaven 14y ago
On the flip side, I'm a parent of four who would jump on this as a way to reduce from two to one cars while also reducing the pain of ferrying kids around to school, lessons, practice, recitals, etc. True self-driving (as opposed to "licensed driver paying attention but not needing to hold the wheel") will be adopted very quickly.
- brc 14y ago
  You bring up an interesting point. Would you, as a parent, be happy with a driverless car going to collect your child from school/wherever? At what age of the child would you be happy with that?
  - SoftwareMaven 14y ago
    Eventually, yes, but not until they are of an age that they can reliably recognize their own car and are comfortable being alone forthe trip (sevenish, probably, but also depends on how long the trip is), though I can easily imagine some simple tools that would help pair child and car and comfort the child (nothing like watching videos to keep Tommy entertained on a drive).
mkramlich 14y ago
> Why would the car have to wait around in the parking lot all day while you're at work? It could easily keep running around ferrying people places. Yes those are called buses and taxis. :) they already exist. they're dirty. and they're not always available when you need them. One advantage to what you're proposing though is that unlike buses and trains you wouldn't have to put up with dirty, dangerous or rude people near you in the same vehicle.
- jonknee 14y ago
  Why would there need to be other people in the car? It would most likely work just like cabs, but without a driver. You tap a button on your mobile and a car pulls up already knowing where you are going.

neonkiwi 14y ago

I think the figure of added costs is sensationalist at best. The Velodyne LiDAR sensor alone that Google uses is $85,000. I think we'll see self-driving cars soon enough, but I'd be surprised if the Old Guard of car manufacturers will lead the way there.

hyperbovine 14y ago
The first car CD player (Philips DC-085, for the curious) cost $800 in 1987, or ~$1600 today dollars. Who knows how much money they spent on the prototypes. These things will become affordable if the demand is there.

PerryCox 14y ago

Wikipedia regarding "The Pittsburgh Left": >It is an illegal and controversial practice.[1] [1]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pittsburgh_left http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pittsburgh_left

jlgreco 14y ago
It hardly matters if it is illegal and controversial. If it is seen in reality, then it is a case they must consider.