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To me, there are only a few "out there" technologies that have a chance to change everything. 3-D printing is at the top of my list, but that's going to be a wh

To me, there are only a few "out there" technologies that have a chance to change everything. 3-D printing is at the top of my list, but that's going to be a while before it really takes off. The others are robotics (also taking a while) and self-driving cars. If Google can work through not only the technical but the social and legal problems associated with fully auto-drive cars, it could literally change the world overnight. Instead of driving cars being a time sink, it could change into something along the lines of being in a room that goes places. You could sleep, read, play games, or otherwise occupy your time. It would literally give the nation tens of billions of hours in added productivity time. It could make the elderly more independent, eliminate drunk-driving, and a lot more. Very cool stuff.

heretohelp 15y ago
Drunk-driving alone costs our country immeasurably in terms of human and economic cost. Eliminating the vast majority of infractions would be a real contribution to humanity.
- sk5t 15y ago
  Also, I approve of a future where ordinary people can travel without fear of fabricated botherment by the police. Driving a car has got to be the number one excuse for the USA's police to pull over and antagonize folks on the thinnest imaginable (or no) probable cause.
  - lukeholder 15y ago
    the scary part will be when they can remotely order a car off the road through remote control with no cause.
    - aggie 15y ago
      While I agree there will likely be remote disabling procedures for emergency/law enforcement reasons, I don't see where you get the "no cause" piece of your slippery slope. It seems it would be much easier to unjustly pull someone over with current human-operated cars; with automated cars, reasons such as "they were weaving" or other gray area justifications will no longer be available to LEOs.
      - sgift 15y ago
        I'm curious now: They need a reason to pull you over in the USA? In Germany it is simply "routine check", which is a perfectly legal reason here.
        jeffool 15y ago
        Yes, there has to be a reason. Of course, it's very easy for an officer to say "He was weaving in traffic", or claiming you were speeding when you were not, or simply lie about you using a turn signal. I'll bet most people have a story like that. Probably from when they were younger, but not necessarily. And that's not even getting into "driving while black" and the likes.
- wahnfrieden 15y ago
  Don't forget mortality rates for energy creation.
- strictfp 15y ago
  Maybe driving also lowers alcohol consumption?
Homunculiheaded 15y ago
The wide ranging impacts will be huge, as well as the unintended consequences. I actually think the first thing to go will be truck drivers. There are some social obstacles for regular cars, but once automated driving has proven itself it's only a matter of time until the shipping/delivery industry says "wait I can have 24/7 drivers that have less accidents per million miles than the ones that can only do 11 hour days?" Just this one case has crazy implications: 3.5 million jobs lost in a short time span, but you can order from amazon at 6pm and have at it your doorstep before you wake up, all of the trucks can drive at exactly optimal fuel efficiency, all businesses that rely on truckers will likely go under, do you need distribution centers when you have cheap, never sleeping drivers? this will take consume enormous amount of energy... and I'm sure you can think of more just for that one case. Personally I think the biggest impact this will have is the energy usage one. Currently we stress about our abilities to meet future demands, but we aren't stressed enough to really innovate. Automated driving will definitely change that.
- deleted 15y ago
  [deleted]
- wbobeirne 15y ago
  I'm willing to bet that, at least in the infancy of the technology, there will be laws that require at least 1 capable driver in the vehicle at all times. This would still probably effect the industry greatly, as they could then hire almost anyone with a license, but 3.5 million jobs wouldn't just drop off the face of the country.
  - kamaal 15y ago
    Well just like Emails haven't completely replaced Postal services. You will still need drivers. You will need people to drive Ambulances, Race cars and things like vehicles for banks and other important things. But when big paradigm shifts like this happen, generally a lot of people end up loosing jobs.
    - brc 15y ago
Aftershock21 15y ago
I wrote a blog few weeks ago on social impact of self driving cars. Please check it out and suggest other significant changes that are not listed. http://neurographs.wordpress.com/2012/03/20/social-impact-of-self-driving-cars/ http://neurographs.wordpress.com/2012/03/20/social-impact-of...
- deleted 15y ago
  [deleted]
samstave 15y ago
Just wait until we get to the PRINT act: specifically this act will make illegal the Printing of Restricted Intellectual Non-redistributable Technologies. You think it's illegal to scan edit and print just money? Wait till they make it illegal to print firearm parts. I already have all the AR-15 parts in STL format. It's not far until the fucking morons in politics whom have no idea of how information works decide 3D printing is in support for terrorism. How long then until they realize that only intelligence can be outlawed to thwart this imaginary foe. Oh, wait, the war on education has been in full effect for decades for this very reason. What is the best weapon against education? Poverty. Keep them poor, keep them stupid. And he next level of that weapon? When they start acting up, kill th economy to make the educated poor! What do you think the 2008 crash was about? "the people have caught on to our lies! Quick! Kill he economy, make them worry about putting food on the table - that will shut them up!!"
- corin_ 15y ago
  Impressive how quickly you escalated from talking sense (although I'm not sure why building a gun should be any more or less legal than buying a gun) to conspiracy theory there.
  - learc83 15y ago
    Building a gun requires a whole new set of hoops to jump through. It is not legal to manufacture firearms unless you are licensed. The ATF will freak out and confiscate everything if they get wind of you building so much as a zip gun. Also I assume that if the GP is planning on 3D printing an AR-15 once it's feasible (already illegal), he is planning on manufacturing a fully automatic version. That would be manufacturing a "machine gun" and would bring serious jail time.
    - samstave 15y ago
      That is a slanderous statement. L send you an email about your slandering me claiming that I am stating such things. Learc83: I have no intention of breaking the law. For you to post such slander online is outrageous. Let's hope we do not meet face to face. My family has been a responsible gun owning family for more than 150 years. I am appalled and angered that you simply assume that I would seek the most illegal form of weapon should I simply be able to print it. Shall I assume that you have a propensity for rape if I were to know you were not a virgin? My point in my original post was that should politicians who are abstracted from the understanding of how information exists will always err on the side on insane restrictions not based in the reality of how that information is actually disseminated or accessed. You cannot outlaw knowledge, or intelligence. However, in your case, it appears you can aschew it.
vog 15y ago
I don't really buy this car-centric view. Don't get me wrong, I also like the idea of self-driving cars very much. But I don't think this will change "everything". Instead, I see a smooth transition towards more and more automated driving. For example, here in Berlin we have a really good public transportation, which becomes more and more automated every year. In particular, short-distance (as well as long-distance) rails are almost fully automated these days, yet there is still a human sitting in the train's driver's cab for safety reasons. In other cities like Frankfurt, there are even one or two non-human fully automated short-distance rails. Those are used more in the way we use an elevator, they feel less like trains. Another example are airplanes, which are driven almost automatically these days, where the pilot is only really required for landing and, again, for safety in unexpected situations. I think that cars are no different in that regard. There will always be some kind of "driver", although that person will have less and less to do with driving, and more with technical observation, safety, etc. (As a side note, I think that putting so much emphasis on cars over other types of transportation is some kind of "US thingie". Here in Germany, cars are high valued vehicles, too, but they are generally not a symbol of freedom, independence, etc. Maybe I'm wrong in that regard, but that's my personal explaination of that strange car-centric view on transportation, which leads to so much excitement of self-driving cars, disregarding the amazing progresses in all other areas of transportation.)
- TillE 15y ago
  The main problem with cars in the US is suburban sprawl. A large percentage of the population live in places where a car is required to go anywhere. It's a mess, a disaster of urban planning that's probably impossible to fix. In Germany, even in the more rural areas, you can typically walk 15-20 minutes to a town with shops, or get a bus even closer than that. That's not so in much of the US. If you don't live in one of the few walkable cities with decent public transit, you're gonna need a car.
  - kamaal 15y ago
    >>The main problem with cars in the US is suburban sprawl. A large percentage of the population live in places where a car is required to go anywhere. It's a mess, a disaster of urban planning that's probably impossible to fix. If you think US urban planning is in a mess, come to India. I bet these self driven cars can't survive for even minutes on any street. In India, you practically have to chase street dogs, dodge cricket balls, avoid kids playing on the road, find the road in a road of full of potholes, use breath control techniques to escape the stench and lanes are nothing short of mazes which you can't find a way out unless you've lived years in that area. I am not sure if self driven cars can ever work here.
loverobots 15y ago
Cadillac is introducing them very soon...2015 to be exact. http://www.inquisitr.com/227496/cadillac-to-release-self-driving-cars-by-2015-video/ http://www.inquisitr.com/227496/cadillac-to-release-self-dri... They cannot match Google's PR but I wonder how the tech matches up. Honda and Toyota are regularly featured in the press for their robots; autoparking and collision warning have been added to cars too

heretohelp 15y ago

Drunk-driving alone costs our country immeasurably in terms of human and economic cost. Eliminating the vast majority of infractions would be a real contribution to humanity.

sk5t 15y ago
Also, I approve of a future where ordinary people can travel without fear of fabricated botherment by the police. Driving a car has got to be the number one excuse for the USA's police to pull over and antagonize folks on the thinnest imaginable (or no) probable cause.
- lukeholder 15y ago
  the scary part will be when they can remotely order a car off the road through remote control with no cause.
  - aggie 15y ago
    While I agree there will likely be remote disabling procedures for emergency/law enforcement reasons, I don't see where you get the "no cause" piece of your slippery slope. It seems it would be much easier to unjustly pull someone over with current human-operated cars; with automated cars, reasons such as "they were weaving" or other gray area justifications will no longer be available to LEOs.
    - sgift 15y ago
      I'm curious now: They need a reason to pull you over in the USA? In Germany it is simply "routine check", which is a perfectly legal reason here.
      - jeffool 15y ago
        Yes, there has to be a reason. Of course, it's very easy for an officer to say "He was weaving in traffic", or claiming you were speeding when you were not, or simply lie about you using a turn signal. I'll bet most people have a story like that. Probably from when they were younger, but not necessarily. And that's not even getting into "driving while black" and the likes.
wahnfrieden 15y ago
Don't forget mortality rates for energy creation.
strictfp 15y ago
Maybe driving also lowers alcohol consumption?

Homunculiheaded 15y ago

The wide ranging impacts will be huge, as well as the unintended consequences. I actually think the first thing to go will be truck drivers. There are some social obstacles for regular cars, but once automated driving has proven itself it's only a matter of time until the shipping/delivery industry says "wait I can have 24/7 drivers that have less accidents per million miles than the ones that can only do 11 hour days?" Just this one case has crazy implications: 3.5 million jobs lost in a short time span, but you can order from amazon at 6pm and have at it your doorstep before you wake up, all of the trucks can drive at exactly optimal fuel efficiency, all businesses that rely on truckers will likely go under, do you need distribution centers when you have cheap, never sleeping drivers? this will take consume enormous amount of energy... and I'm sure you can think of more just for that one case. Personally I think the biggest impact this will have is the energy usage one. Currently we stress about our abilities to meet future demands, but we aren't stressed enough to really innovate. Automated driving will definitely change that.

deleted 15y ago
[deleted]
wbobeirne 15y ago
I'm willing to bet that, at least in the infancy of the technology, there will be laws that require at least 1 capable driver in the vehicle at all times. This would still probably effect the industry greatly, as they could then hire almost anyone with a license, but 3.5 million jobs wouldn't just drop off the face of the country.
- kamaal 15y ago
  Well just like Emails haven't completely replaced Postal services. You will still need drivers. You will need people to drive Ambulances, Race cars and things like vehicles for banks and other important things. But when big paradigm shifts like this happen, generally a lot of people end up loosing jobs.
  - brc 15y ago

Aftershock21 15y ago

I wrote a blog few weeks ago on social impact of self driving cars. Please check it out and suggest other significant changes that are not listed. http://neurographs.wordpress.com/2012/03/20/social-impact-of-self-driving-cars/ http://neurographs.wordpress.com/2012/03/20/social-impact-of...

deleted 15y ago
[deleted]

samstave 15y ago

Just wait until we get to the PRINT act: specifically this act will make illegal the Printing of Restricted Intellectual Non-redistributable Technologies. You think it's illegal to scan edit and print just money? Wait till they make it illegal to print firearm parts. I already have all the AR-15 parts in STL format. It's not far until the fucking morons in politics whom have no idea of how information works decide 3D printing is in support for terrorism. How long then until they realize that only intelligence can be outlawed to thwart this imaginary foe. Oh, wait, the war on education has been in full effect for decades for this very reason. What is the best weapon against education? Poverty. Keep them poor, keep them stupid. And he next level of that weapon? When they start acting up, kill th economy to make the educated poor! What do you think the 2008 crash was about? "the people have caught on to our lies! Quick! Kill he economy, make them worry about putting food on the table - that will shut them up!!"

corin_ 15y ago
Impressive how quickly you escalated from talking sense (although I'm not sure why building a gun should be any more or less legal than buying a gun) to conspiracy theory there.
- learc83 15y ago
  Building a gun requires a whole new set of hoops to jump through. It is not legal to manufacture firearms unless you are licensed. The ATF will freak out and confiscate everything if they get wind of you building so much as a zip gun. Also I assume that if the GP is planning on 3D printing an AR-15 once it's feasible (already illegal), he is planning on manufacturing a fully automatic version. That would be manufacturing a "machine gun" and would bring serious jail time.
  - samstave 15y ago
    That is a slanderous statement. L send you an email about your slandering me claiming that I am stating such things. Learc83: I have no intention of breaking the law. For you to post such slander online is outrageous. Let's hope we do not meet face to face. My family has been a responsible gun owning family for more than 150 years. I am appalled and angered that you simply assume that I would seek the most illegal form of weapon should I simply be able to print it. Shall I assume that you have a propensity for rape if I were to know you were not a virgin? My point in my original post was that should politicians who are abstracted from the understanding of how information exists will always err on the side on insane restrictions not based in the reality of how that information is actually disseminated or accessed. You cannot outlaw knowledge, or intelligence. However, in your case, it appears you can aschew it.

vog 15y ago

I don't really buy this car-centric view. Don't get me wrong, I also like the idea of self-driving cars very much. But I don't think this will change "everything". Instead, I see a smooth transition towards more and more automated driving. For example, here in Berlin we have a really good public transportation, which becomes more and more automated every year. In particular, short-distance (as well as long-distance) rails are almost fully automated these days, yet there is still a human sitting in the train's driver's cab for safety reasons. In other cities like Frankfurt, there are even one or two non-human fully automated short-distance rails. Those are used more in the way we use an elevator, they feel less like trains. Another example are airplanes, which are driven almost automatically these days, where the pilot is only really required for landing and, again, for safety in unexpected situations. I think that cars are no different in that regard. There will always be some kind of "driver", although that person will have less and less to do with driving, and more with technical observation, safety, etc. (As a side note, I think that putting so much emphasis on cars over other types of transportation is some kind of "US thingie". Here in Germany, cars are high valued vehicles, too, but they are generally not a symbol of freedom, independence, etc. Maybe I'm wrong in that regard, but that's my personal explaination of that strange car-centric view on transportation, which leads to so much excitement of self-driving cars, disregarding the amazing progresses in all other areas of transportation.)

TillE 15y ago
The main problem with cars in the US is suburban sprawl. A large percentage of the population live in places where a car is required to go anywhere. It's a mess, a disaster of urban planning that's probably impossible to fix. In Germany, even in the more rural areas, you can typically walk 15-20 minutes to a town with shops, or get a bus even closer than that. That's not so in much of the US. If you don't live in one of the few walkable cities with decent public transit, you're gonna need a car.
- kamaal 15y ago
  >>The main problem with cars in the US is suburban sprawl. A large percentage of the population live in places where a car is required to go anywhere. It's a mess, a disaster of urban planning that's probably impossible to fix. If you think US urban planning is in a mess, come to India. I bet these self driven cars can't survive for even minutes on any street. In India, you practically have to chase street dogs, dodge cricket balls, avoid kids playing on the road, find the road in a road of full of potholes, use breath control techniques to escape the stench and lanes are nothing short of mazes which you can't find a way out unless you've lived years in that area. I am not sure if self driven cars can ever work here.

loverobots 15y ago

Cadillac is introducing them very soon...2015 to be exact. http://www.inquisitr.com/227496/cadillac-to-release-self-driving-cars-by-2015-video/ http://www.inquisitr.com/227496/cadillac-to-release-self-dri... They cannot match Google's PR but I wonder how the tech matches up. Honda and Toyota are regularly featured in the press for their robots; autoparking and collision warning have been added to cars too