Another problem is that the Agile OGs keep overselling their methodology. They keep saying that waterfall just doesn't work, yet almost all commercially succes

Another problem is that the Agile OGs keep overselling their methodology. They keep saying that waterfall just doesn't work, yet almost all commercially successful (and unsuccessful) software is produced that way, whether they claim to use Agile or not. Would it be better if they used "real Agile"? Of course! But you only ever have to be just good enough.